Playoff football is finally here! It only feels like yesterday that we were heading into Week 1, and just like that, we’re heading down the home straight towards Super Bowl LVI. First up we get the No. 5 Raiders heading to Cincinnati to face the No. 4 Bengals in the first of three AFC Wild Card games this weekend. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are 5.5 point favorites, with the O/U sitting at 49.
DraftKings Showdown 2021- Las Vegas @Cincinnati Captain Picks
Joe Mixon ($15,600)
After missing last week’s regular-season finale with COVID, Mixon is back for the playoffs and is in a great spot on Saturday. He’s averaging 75.2 Y/G on the ground, as well as 19.6 through the air. In the matchup between these two Week 11, Mixon put up huge numbers, with 123 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground, good for 27.3 DKPTS. Mixon is averaging over 20 DKPTS per game at home, and there’s no reason to suggest he shouldn’t do well again on Saturday, as only the Seahawks and the Jets have surrendered more points to RBs this year than Las Vegas.
Tee Higgins ($11.400)
Whilst Chase’s ceiling is undoubtedly the highest on the slate, Higgins is $6,000 cheaper and has a fairly similar median projection. Higgins’ receiving prop line currently sits at 65.5 yards, with Chase’s at 70.5 yards. Both guys also have a similar target share – 23.11% to 22.69%, with the former LSU star just edging ahead of Higgins. At such a huge price difference, Higgins is a great play on Saturday but is likely to come with high ownership.
Desean Jackson ($1,500)
If you can’t take a random punt at Captain on Wild Card Weekend, then when can you? Jackson is the epitome of a boom/bust guy, proven with his aDOT of 19..03 yards. He’s not an attractive pick by any means, but is the kind of guy that can break the slate on one play and can win showdown slates. Going this cheap at captain means you can jam in the more expensive guys as well.
DraftKings Showdown 2021- Las Vegas @Cincinnati Flex Picks
Ja’Marr Chase ($11,600)
Chase needs a huge game to pay off his massive price tag, but we all know he’s capable of it, especially after his monster 11-266-3 showing in Week 17. His price should bring down his ownership, but he’s still got the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate.
Joe Burrow/Derek Carr ($11,000/$9,600)
Showdown slates are always about correlation and game-script. If you’re playing more than one pass-catcher from either side, 9 times out of 10 you’ll want to pair them with their respective QB to optimize your points. Neither of these QBs are necessarily flashy plays from a DFS standpoint, but should still do well enough not to sink your line-ups.
Darren Waller ($7,000)
The Raiders’ TE comes into this one with a huge discount after playing 62 of 80 offensive last week, his first game since Week 12. He was frequently priced in the $10,000+ range before his injury but has had a disappointing year from a fantasy perspective. That being said, only 5 teams gave up more DKPTS per game to opposing TEs in the regular season than Cincinnati, so look for Waller to see plenty of targets on Saturday. Whilst his 19 target game in Week 1 seems like a distant memory, he did manage 116 yards on 7 catches when these two met in Week 11.
Zay Jones ($5,000)
Jones is quietly having himself a nice second-half of the year, with 8.4 targets per game in his last 5, as well as a 120 yard game in Week 18 at Indianapolis. Waller being back in the fray likely takes some targets away from Jones and Renfrow, but at $5,000 Jones should still see enough of the ball to pay off his price.
DraftKings Showdown 2021- Las Vegas @Cincinnati Kickers and DST
Neither defense really stands out for me in this one. Both sides are middle of the pack in terms of sacks, whilst Las Vegas has just 15 takeaways on the year, the 3rd-lowest in the league. In this price range, I’d much rather go for either kicker. Carlson ($3,800) is averaging over 10 DKPTS per game, and whilst he does play his home games indoors, 6 of his 10 double-digit games have actually come outdoors. McPherson ($4,000) is also having a great season and benefits from kicking for a high-powered offense, presenting him with plenty of opportunities to score.
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Image Credit: Joe Maiorana – USA TODAY Sports