Starting Week 8 of the action, the 2023 DraftKings showdown slate- Tampa Bay @Buffalo. This one feels like it could be closer than Vegas think. The O/U has been set at 42.5, with Buffalo just over a TD favorite. The Bills have struggled this season at times to get going, losing to the Patriots and Jacksonville in recent weeks.
DraftKings TNF Showdown 2023 – Tampa Bay @Buffalo Captain Picks
Josh Allen ($17,700 Capt/ $11,800 Flex)
Allen had a decent game last week against the Patriots, at least for fantasy, with 265 yards and 2 scores through the air, as well as adding another score on the ground. Infact, you have to go back to the very comfortable game over Washington to find one where he hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs. With this arm talent, and rushing upside, his price feels low.
Stefon Diggs ($17,100 Capt/ $11,400 Flex)
If a player is going to outscore Allen on the slate, it feels like it’ll be Diggs. Been far more consistent with his production this season, only failing to eclipse 100 yards twice this season. The Tampa secondary has struggled to limit production this season, and Diggs gets a healthy target share in this offense (of around a third of all targets in the offense). Strong CPT play, and nice stack with Allen.
Mike Evans ($15,000 Capt/ $10,000 Flex)
Choosing Evans really forces you to go a certain way in your builds, as it’ll mean you have to omit either Allen or Diggs in your lineups with the pricing. That’s nothing against Evans, as he has been great to start the season, leading the Bucs in yards and TDs (joint in targets with Chris Godwin). The upside is certainly there if Mayfield has a good game, but feels like a GPP-shot with the lack of a floor.
DraftKings TNF Showdown 2023 – Tampa Bay @Buffalo Flex Picks
Baker Mayfield ($9,200 Flex)
Mayfield has been ok this season, with a ‘normal’ showing of 230-ish yards and a TD, with the potential of an outlier in yards or TDs. I’m not sold on him, with the Bills only allowing an average of 12.8 DKPts to the QB position this season. But, if you are going with him, you have to stack him with Evans and/ or Godwin- as they’ll be putting up numbers too.
James Cook ($8,600 Flex)
Cook is in a weird usage spot, getting the majority of touches out of the backfield, but still being subbed off for Latavius Murray!? With Allen still vulturing TDs in the redzone, and then Murray also grabbing short-range carries, this could be a tough game for Cook to hit value. He feels slightly priced down based on other slates, but I prefer other options in this price-range.
Rachaad White ($8,000 Flex)
One of those players I prefer is White. Clear leader in the backfield, and has involvement in the passing game too. The floor isn’t really there in this offense, but feels like there is less competition to have a decent score. The Bills are a team that you can run on too, giving up 24.9 DKPts to the position on average.
Chris Godwin ($7,800 Flex)
Godwin hasn’t quite gelled with Mayfield, still getting targets in the offense, but at a shorter average and hasn’t yet found the endzone this season. But all of that has been baked into his pricing here. At some point, with his talent, he has to have a boom game surely? With DK’s PPR scoring, he feels like a nice option in the middle range of salaries on the slate and a potential sneaky CPT play.
Gabe Davis ($6,800 Flex)
Davis is a constant potential showdown-killer. And that could be as a winner or a loser. Had a 6 reception 100-yard game with a score in London. The next week he caught three passes for 21 yards. GPP-only, with his upside. Could try and go funky with Davis as a cheap CPT play with the trio of Allen, Diggs and Evans as flex plays too.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,000 Flex)
Kincaid is going to be VERY popular at this pricing. Dawson Knox has been ruled out, and that makes him the only (name value) TE for the Bills. Kincaid was drafted to be an athletic pass-catcher, and is coming off the back of a breakout game against the Patriots. Great flex play, with upside with the pricing, and a sneaky CPT play at the pricing.
Latavius Murray ($4,800 Flex)
Murray has somehow managed to find a role in the Bills offense as a bit of a vulture at the goal-line. But, what I found interesting was that he was on the field for alot more of the snaps than in previous games, almost equalling Cook. Didn’t get the touches though, so might be missed by people only looking at box scores. The concern for Murray will be if the vulture gets vultured by Allen- as that would kill his value. But worth some consideration in your GPP lineups.
Cade Otton ($3,000 Flex)
Otton is joint 3rd in targets on the offense (tied with White, behind Evans and Godwin). Had a good game last week against the Lions with 5 receptions for 43 yards. Averaging 4 targets this season. Would need to be very efficient with those looks in this one though, as the Bills only give up an average of 9.2 DKPTs to the position.
Deven Thompkins ($1,600 Flex)
Thompkins has been used as a bit of a gadget player in the offense, with a few rushes mixed in with some targets. Getting consistently targetted around 4 times a game, bringing in half of those. Has good size and speed though and is $3k cheaper than Palmer- despite their similar roles in the offense. Thompkins also has returning duties if you want to really roll the dice.
Deonte Harty ($1,000 Flex)
Harty is ahead of Shakir in targets for the season, although the majority came at the start of the season. Feels like he is probably slightly behind Khalil Shakir on the depth chart, along with Trent Sherfield, battling for the WR4 role. But in this offense, the gap is so small in targets and production. I’d prefer Harty or Sherfield (and the savings they offer) over Shakir at $3.2k.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($600 Flex)
Vaughn has mixed usage in the offense, well when it tends to touches at least, as the backup RB for Tampa Bay. Clear second fiddle to White, fully shown in the price. Not as appealing as in previous games, with Chase Edmonds return mudding the water for Vaughn’s snap count. Doesn’t need to do too much to hit value at the price, and has some involvement in the passing game too.
Chase Edmonds ($200 Flex)
Edmonds has been activated off IR and could see the field. We really don’t have too much of an indication of his usage here though. Most likely going to split the RB2 role with Vaughn, and eased into the offense with a few snaps. The min-price makes him an attractive option with his pass-catching ability.
Dart Throw Plays (Various)
Instead of writing up a line for a few options with their own sections, thought I’d list out a few in one area. Not really worth considering these as core plays, only in multi-entry GPPs:
- Trey Palmer (WR, TB) $4,200 Flex – Palmer is the WR3 in the offense, potentially the WR4, by a long distance. Godwin and Evans just eat so many targets in this offense. The pricing here feels steep considering his role in the offense. Palmer hasn’t caught more than two passes in any game this season. He is on the field, so maybe worth some GPP consideration, but feel there are cheaper options with a similar floor and ceiling.
- Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF) $3,200 Flex – Really feels like DK got the pricing of these borderline WR3s wrong on the slate. Shakir is coming off the back of his best game this season, but it was only 4 catches for 35 yards- not exactly game-changing. Such a hike in price to other players that see just as much involvement in the offense.
- Reggie Gilliam/ Joel Wilson (TE, BUF) $200 Flex – Gilliam has been on the field for a handful of snaps in each game this season, and could see an increase in snaps with Knox out. Listed as a FB or TE depending on where you get your information from, which should tell you everything about his outlook and usage. Pray he flops over the line for a score. Wilson could see some action with Knox ruled out as the TE2. Absolute dart-throw as the rookie hasn’t seen the field at all this season.
DraftKings TNF Showdown 2023 – Tampa Bay @Buffalo Kickers and DSTs
DraftKings are definitely getting on the kickers wagon in these showdown slates. Tyler Bass ($5,400) is an accurate kicker, with his only misses coming from distance. Should have conditions that means he gets some more attempts, but the pricing really puts me off. On a slate with alot of studs and duds, I’d prefer to save $800 and grab Chase McLaughlin ($4,600). McLaughlin has only missed one kick this season back in Week 2 (from long-range). Mayfield has done well getting the offense downfield before stalling. As long as Mayfield and the Bucs defense can keep the team in the contest, McLaughlin should be able to convert his opportunities.
This is a game where I actually feel ok in having both DSTs in my lineups (maybe not in the same one, but there have been plenty of slates where one DST is just awful). The Bills DST ($4,400) have been effective in rushing the passer this season, with 25 sacks and 17 turnovers this season. Mayfield has been on an unfortunate run of throwing and INT in each of his past 4 games too. The Buccaneers DST ($3,600) are an interesting play too, with Allen turning the ball over four times in his last three games. They have some playmakers who can score if given the opportunity. We have seen the Bills offense struggle at times this season, so this isn’t an obvious fade.
So, there are our DraftKings selections for the 2023 Showdown of Tampa Bay @Buffalo! Remember any DFS questions, you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Brian Fluharty – USA TODAY Sports