Let’s review what set apart the winning lineup from DraftKings Week 1 $100 NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Milly Maker. The winning entry, crafted by “sws42680,” featured a balanced mix of high ownership and contrarian plays, with strategic salary allocation across all positions. Here’s how it all breaks down and what we can learn for Week 2.
Note: In future articles I will focus on the $20 Fantasy Football Millionaire contest.
Key Characteristics of the Winning Lineup
Looking at the data, the winning lineup embraced some critical aspects:
High Salary Utilization: The lineup allocated significant salary to top performers like Kenneth Walker (SEA, $6100, 27% ownership) and Nico Collins (HOU, $7000, 10.8% ownership). By targeting mid-to-high salary players with decent upside, the lineup ensured a high floor with a mix of potential breakout performances.
Medium Salary with Big Impact: It also included J.K. Dobbins (LAC, $4900, 2.6% ownership), a medium-salary player who delivered a solid 25.9 fantasy points. This approach highlights the importance of identifying mid-range players who are primed for breakout games.
Contrarian Low-Ownership Picks: The lineup had a few low-owned players, such as Dobbins, who offered significant upside at a fraction of the ownership. This strategy is crucial in large tournaments to differentiate from the crowd and capture unique value.
Avoidance of Negative Correlation: Notably, the lineup did not feature any players facing the rostered DST, a fundamental rule in DFS to maximize point-scoring potential. This means Baker Mayfield (TB, $5600, 10% ownership) wasn’t paired against his own defense, which could’ve capped the scoring potential.
Comparing the Winning Lineup with the Perfect Lineup
When we put the winning lineup side-by-side with the perfect lineup, a few differences and similarities stand out:
Similarities:
Both lineups opted for high-salary players at multiple positions, ensuring that top performers were well represented. There was a strategic use of medium-owned players to balance between chalk plays and differentiators. No players were positioned against the rostered DST, adhering to best practices to avoid negative correlation.
Differences:
The winning lineup employed a team stack but not a game stack, suggesting a focused approach on one team’s offensive output rather than betting on a shootout scenario. This differs from the perfect lineup, which utilized two AFC game stacks to maximize scoring potential from multiple games. A slight AFC bias was present in the winning lineup with a 5-4 player split, compared to a heavier AFC preference in the perfect lineup.
Lessons Learned for Week 2: Building Your Winning Lineup
Armed with these insights, let’s break down a winning strategy for the upcoming Week 2 contest:
Avoid Negative Correlation: Continue the strategy of not rostering offensive players against your DST. It’s tempting to include explosive offensive players, but playing against your DST caps the upside of your lineup. Instead, look for DSTs like the Dallas Cowboys, who can generate sacks and takeaways without compromising the rest of your lineup.
Embrace the Game Stack Strategy: Unlike the Week 1 winning lineup, consider favoring two game stacks for Week 2. Target games with high implied totals or those featuring explosive offenses. Look for opportunities like the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup, where a Joe Burrow (CIN) stack with one of his pass catcher could offer substantial upside.
Leverage AFC Players: Following the trend from Week 1, favor players from the AFC in your lineup. Teams like the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins feature dynamic offenses with the potential to produce slate-breaking performances.
Target High Salary, Low-Owned Plays: Focus on finding high-salary players projected to have lower ownership. In Week 2, look for under-the-radar studs who might be in tough matchups but have the talent to excel regardless. Think of plays like Derrick Henry (BAL) against the Las Vegas Raiders, where the usage might scare off some but the ceiling remains sky-high.
Ensure at Least Two Low-Owned Plays: Differentiate your lineup with at least two low-owned players. Consider RBs like Rachaad White (TB) or wide receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), who could fly under the radar but have the potential to deliver big performances given the right game script.
Final Thoughts
The Week 1 winning lineup gives us a playbook for success but also shows the importance of flexibility and adaptability in DFS. As we head into Week 2, balancing proven strategies—like game stacks, leveraging AFC players, and incorporating high-salary, low-owned plays—with adaptability to the week’s unique slate will be key to crafting a winning lineup.
Keep an eye on player news, injury reports, and ownership projections as the week progresses, and be ready to pivot based on the latest data. The path to DFS glory is always changing, but with the right preparation and strategy, you’ll be ready to tackle Week 2 and beyond! If you have any DFS questions shoot me a DM on twitter at @numeric_dfs. Also checkout our other KFS DFS articles here, and interact with us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram. We’re always ready to talk shop and help you build those winning rosters!
