Wildcard weekend is here and another 2023 DraftKings showdown slate this time Miami @Kansas City. Now I’m not sure you know about the fact it’s going to be cold in this game- it’s only been constantly mentioned. The weather is going to be an issue for both teams, but playing at home the Chiefs should have a bit of an advantage over a normal warm weather Miami team. The O/U here has been set at around 44, so a low-scoring game that might only have a few TDs in it. With the Chiefs favored by around 5 points.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Miami @Kansas City Captain Picks
Tyreek Hill ($19,200 Capt/ $12,800 Flex)
Hill has been great all season, but has clearly been struggling with an ankle injury in December (actually missing a game with it). Hill had one of his worst games of the season against the Chiefs (in Germany) earlier this season too. But, with the big lights on, the stage is set for Hill to have a big game with his speed. With how Mike McDaniel runs his offense too, he would have been working on ways to get his best offensive weapon the ball.
Patrick Mahomes ($17,700 Capt/ $11,800 Flex)
Think it’s fair to say that Mahomes hasn’t had the best season. Has only thrown for more than 300 yards four times this season, and 9 games with multiple TDs. But, in any given game, he can turn a game on it’s head with his ability. Think it might be hard for him to hit value at this price tag though, with his receivers struggling for consistency.
De’Von Achane ($13,800 Capt/ $9,200 Flex)
Achane split work with Jeff Wilson last week, and could do so again with Mostert questionable for this game. Didn’t get this normal involvement in the passing game last week, with a solitary target (which he caught for 5 yards). The Chiefs have been decent at stopping the run this season, but if Achane can get into space, he is a great and dynamic runner.
Travis Kelce ($12,600 Capt/ $8,400 Flex)
Kelce may have had a disappointing season by his standards. But let’s put it into context- it’s still a 93 reception, 984 yards season after missing two games. Kelce is clearly the primary offensive weapon for the team and has a great relationship with Mahomes near the redzone. The pricing feels like it’s not taking into consideration his ceiling- making him a solid CPT selection here.
Isiah Pacheco ($12,000 Capt/ $8,000 Flex)
Pacheco has been an animal moving the ball on the ground. Has double-digit carries in 12 of the 14 games he has played this season, with three games of 100+ yards. The Miami defense has been good at defending the run this season generally, but with the injuries on defense, he could take advantage of that. Especially with the weather expected to be tough, could see plenty of volume here.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Miami @Kansas City Flex Picks
Tua Tagovailoa ($11,200 Flex)
Tua’s outlook is really linked to Hill’s in the passing game. You can see that in his box scores from December (since Hill has been struggling with his ankle injury). Has only thrown multiple TDs twice in December. Decent enough flex option, in a stack with Hill, but outside of that I’d move on.
Rashee Rice ($10,200 Flex)
Rice has been the best WR for the Chiefs this season. Sure the bar has been set quite low, but he is clearly the most consistent dynamic threat they have now. Kelce looks like he is being asked to be in the possession receiver role now, leaving Rice to make the big plays. Against this secondary, he could have some success. The pricing here puts me more onto Kelce, but Rice is the next receiver you have to consider.
Raheem Mostert ($8,600 Flex)
Mostert has been struggling with a knee injury, missing some time with it, but was a limited participant in practice. Mostert has been great for fantasy this season in this offense, as he has been getting plenty of usage in the redzone. If he suits up, I think you have to get some exposure to him. With how the Chiefs are at defending the position though, you have to choose between Achane and Mostert.
Jaylen Waddle ($7,400 Flex)
Waddle was starting to put together a few decent games to end the season before he was forced out of the Dallas game with an ankle injury. Looks like he is going to get the questionable tag here, so you need to keep an eye on his status right up to game time. The Chiefs secondary has been a decent unit against receivers though, so I wouldn’t hold out too much hope that he has a strong return here. GPP shot on the slate.
Cedrick Wilson Jr ($4,800 Flex)
Wilson has been standing in for Waddle as the WR2 in the Dolphins offense, but has really struggled to make an impact. Has only caught six passes for 93 yards and a single score in his last three games (since Waddle has been ruled out). The price point makes him interesting if Waddle is out, but otherwise it’s going to be hard for him to hit value here.
Justin Watson ($4,400 Flex)
Watson isn’t a bad pay-down option at WR. Third on the team in targets, and has made some big plays. The weather here is a concern, but Watson’s deep threat combined with Mahomes’ arm can create points quickly. Nice option and the last of the ‘safe’ Chiefs receivers.
Dart Throw Plays (Various)
Instead of writing up a line for a few options with their own sections, thought I’d list out a few in one area. Not really worth considering these as core plays, only in multi-entry GPPs:
- Richie James (WR, KC) $4,000 Flex – James being priced up here at $4k seems odd. He has had 14 targets in total for the regular season. Mainly on the field as a kick returner. If you do go this way, I think special teams is his best chance of scoring so stack with the Chiefs DST.
- Kadarius Toney (WR. KC) $3,600 Flex – I feel like it would be such a typical thing for Toney to blow up in the playoffs after struggling to do anything all season. This could also be the type of game that opens up for him if he makes a short pass a long gain. Still a GPP flier only though.
- Durham Smythe (TE, MIA) $3,200 Flex – Smythe has been relatively consistent to end the season, with 3/4 targets for a mid-30’s yardage total. In each of his last four games he has caught every ball that has gone his way. If Waddle is back, I could see him taking a bit of a hit- but that’s more likely to impact his yardage total than receptions. Decent enough floor, but low ceiling.
- Braxton Berrios (WR, MIA) $3,000 Flex – Feels expensive on the slate for a player that has only had 7 targets in the 6 games from the start of December. I’m not even sure if I’d want to take a dart throw on him. The mixed usage he saw to start the year has stopped too. Has special teams returning duties, and feels like that would be his most likely source of points- which is saying something.
- Jeff Wilson (RB, MIA) $2,800 Flex – Wilson has seen some work to end the season as Mostert was on the sideline with injury. If Mostert is back from his injury here, Wilson hasn’t really done enough to think that he would get any decent amount of volume here. GPP punt that would need injuries ahead of him to really hit value here.
- Mecole Hardman (WR, KC) $2,600 Flex – Hardman returned mid-season and finished with 21 targets with the Chiefs. 11 of those came in the last game against the Chargers, so he really isn’t seeing much of the field at all. Has the ability and speed to make plays but GPP dart-throw and hope at best.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire/ La’Mical Perine (RB, KC) $2,400/ $2,200 Flex – The pricing being so close shows you that really it’s hard to know who is going to be the RB2 in this offense. From recent games we’ve seen the workload go one way then the other. Think it’s far more likely that the RB2 role is split here, and you are going to be hoping your guy vultures a TD. Otherwise, there isn’t much of a floor here for either of them.
- Noah Gray (TE, KC) $1,800 Flex – Gray has seen spotty usage, but has been used near the goal-line as teams have focused on stopping Kelce. You need him to find the endzone to hit value, or Kelce to struggle to get anything moving (or injury). Dart-throw.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, KC) $1,200 Flex – Alot has been made of MVS and the drops he has made on offense. But, if he caught some of those passes his outlook would be very different. I’m not sure this is the game for him to perform in though, with the weather conditions. But, the price means if he catches one of those long-bombs he almost immediately hits value.
- River Cracraft/ Robbie Chosen/ Chase Claypool (WR, MIA) $1,000/ $800/ $400 Flex – If Waddle plays I can’t see all of these even being active. Cheap options, but all have no floor and limited upside. If I had to choose between them I’d go with Chosen, who is a constant deep threat when on the field. But I think we could see all three total for less than 6 points.
- Alec Ingold (RB, MIA) $200 Flex – Ingold doesn’t get much usage, and has only scored 4 TDs in his NFL career. But, it’s the playoffs and crazier things have happened than the fullback punching in for a score. Min-price means that if he manages to bring in a pass, or make a short run he could hit value and allow you to spend up elsewhere.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Miami @Kansas City Kickers and DSTs
The kickers could end up being hugely valuable in this game. Yes, the weather is a concern, but both of these two are seasoned professionals who will be able to adjust. Harrison Butker ($5,400) has the homefield advantage and should be ‘more’ used to these conditions. Been solid all season, only missing two FG attempts this season with a long of 60 yards. Jason Sanders ($5,200) wasn’t called on last week against the Bills, breaking a streak of 4 games with multiple FG attempts. Sanders has been solid this season when called upon, only missing from long-range, with a long of 57 yards.
The Chiefs DST ($4,200) are potentially going to be the reason that the Chiefs get a result here. Their secondary has been great (albeit only getting 8 INTs), and their defensive line has totalled 57 sacks. We’ve seen Tua get a little lost at times, and with Chris Jones coming through the middle, it could be a long (and cold) night for him here. The Dolphins DST ($3,800) have some pieces back on defense, and could be a sneaky play here. This Chiefs offense isn’t the same powerhouse it has been in previous seasons, and they are a little banged up. If they are able to get some success up front they could cause some issues for Mahomes being sacked 13 times in his last 5 games.
So, there are our DraftKings selections for the Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Miami @Kansas City! Remember any DFS questions, you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports