Wildcard weekend is here and another 2023 DraftKings showdown slate this time Pittsburgh @Buffalo. This is anticipated to be a low-scoring game, with an O/U of just 38.5 and the Bills are a 10-point favorite.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Pittsburgh @Buffalo Captain Picks
Josh Allen ($18,900 Capt/ $12,600 Flex)
In any Bills showdown slate it’s hard to overlook Allen as the CPT option. At the start of the season, Diggs was a decent pivot, but he struggled in the middle of the season to maintain his production. Allen does it all. Has the arm talent to push the ball downfield, and sees usage in the redzone to finish drives. Even if he turns the ball over, he is likely to be the highest scoring Bill on the slate (if not the whole slate).
Stefon Diggs ($16,500 Capt/ $11,000 Flex)
Diggs had a great start to the season, before struggling in the second half. Looked more like himself last week in the comeback win against the Dolphins. Caught 7 of his 8 targets for 87 yards. If he manages to break his scoring drought (not scored since the game against the Eagles at the end of November). Should have a decent floor here though. Prefer Allen as CPT play, but Diggs is a decent pivot option if you want to have a different option.
George Pickens ($14,400 Capt/ $9,600 Flex)
I wouldn’t go with a Steelers CPT, but if you do want to think it has to be Pickens. Can’t see the Steelers getting a lead or being able to keep up, which should mean more passing attempts for the offense as a whole. Pickens has been the lead target for the offense since Rudolph was the starting QB, and has had some boom games to end the season with back-to-back 100+ yard games.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Pittsburgh @Buffalo Flex Picks
James Cook ($9,200 Flex)
Cook has a great floor in the offense, as the clear RB1 in the offense. Limited ceiling though, with his lack of scoring. For Cook to be able to hit value you need the Bills to get out to a lead, or for the Bills to need to involve him in the passing game. Think I’d look at other options on the slate at the price, but if this game does become very comfortable he could end up as one of the highest scorers on the slate.
Mason Rudolph ($8,800 Flex)
Rudolph has been playing at a level that makes him the most effective QB option they have. That’s where we are with this offense. The Steelers offense is built around establishing the run and playing good defense. Not much of a floor here with how the offense plays, and a limited ceiling too. GPP play at best, if you go this way you have to be putting Pickens in your lineup too as the most likely funnel for production.
Najee Harris ($8,400 Flex)
The Steelers offense is built on establishing the run. Harris hasn’t been dynamic this season, but he is still getting volume as the early down back. Had a great end to the season too, with 26+ carries and 100+ yards in each of his last two games. FOund the endzone four times in his last three games too. Warren might be the ‘highlight play’ RB, but Harris can be productive with volume.
Diontae Johnson ($7,000 Flex)
Johnson has taken a step back in the offense since Rudolph took the lead in the offense. Getting 4 or 5 targets a game for 60-ish yards. That near enough hits value here at this price though. If he manages to find the endzone he could be a nice piece in a lineup. But think you are far more likely to see his floor than his ceiling.
Jaylen Warren ($6,400 Flex)
Warren has been by far the more dynamic backfield option for the team, but is still in the RB2 in the offense. Where Harris has had at least 26 carries in each of his last two games, Warren totals 22 in his last two games. Warren is far more involved in the passing game though, so if the Steelers start to trail he could see more volume in the offense.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,800 Flex)
Kincaid has developed himself to be the second receiving option in this offense. Has 15 targets in his last two games. Has great speed and route-running ability. With the Steelers struggling to defend the position, giving up an average of 12.6 DKPts to the position- should crush value here with Davis ruled out.
Khalil Shakir ($5,600 Flex)
Shakir is a great flex play. WIth Davis ruled out with a knee injury, Shakir is the WR2 for the Bills. Shakir has operated at a decent level as the WR3, so should be able to deal with any uptick in volume. However, think it’s fair more likely that Kincaid sees a larger target bump here. Either way, they should both hit value here.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,200 Flex)
Freiermuth hasn’t had a great season in this run-first offense. Only had 6 targets in each of his last three games, for a total of 5 receptions and 65 yards. The Bills have been a good unit against the position this season, and it’s hard to see that changing here.
Dart Throw Plays (Various)
Instead of writing up a line for a few options with their own sections, thought I’d list out a few in one area. Not really worth considering these as core plays, only in multi-entry GPPs:
- Trent Sherfield/ Deonte Harty (WR, BUF) $3,200/ $2,000 Flex – One of these two is going to be on the field a bunch with Daivs ruled out with a knee injury, moving them up to the WR3 in the offense. Sherfield would be my selection between the two, as he has slightly more momentum in the offense.
- Ty Johnson/ Leonard Fournette/ Latavius Murray (RB, BUF) $2,800/ $2,400/ $2,200 Flex – Behind Cook, it’s really a massive question mark for usage. Murray was the TD vulture, but is barely getting on the field now here. Johnson is getting limited volume too. So, we are riding Lombardi Lenny? Has 12 carries in the last two games. If Cook struggles or is injured, think he would be the next man up. But limited ceiling and no floor.
- Dawson Knox (TE, BUF) $1,800 Flex – Knox hasn’t really managed to get targets back in the offense, after Kincaid made the receiving TE role his own while Knox was injured. He does have a good relationship with Allen though, and ability in the redzone. The Steelers have struggled a little to defend the position this season.
- Allen Robinson/ Calvin Austin (WR, PIT) $1,000/ $800 Flex – The WR3 in a struggling run-first offense isn’t a role to target. Limited volume in the offense, and also they’ve struggled to be productive with their limited volume. If you go this way, you are torching your salary.
- Connor Heyward (TE, PIT) $600 Flex – Getting some usage in the offense, but it’s sparce with Freiermuth in the offense. Absolute punt-play for Heyward here. You need him to fall into the endzone to have a chance of hitting value. Even an injury to Freiermuth isn’t going to do it here.
DraftKings Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Pittsburgh @Buffalo Kickers and DSTs
The kickers here I’m not sold on. Yes, it’s an expected low-scoring game but that hurts the outlook for both kickers. Tyler Bass ($5,000) has been great this season when needed, hitting 24 of his 29 FG attempts this season with a long of 54. But, not sure he sees too many attempts if the Bills are able to move the ball freely here. Chris Boswell ($4,600) has seen more volume, with 31 FG attempts, and has been accurate hitting 29 with a long of 57. But, not sure the Steelers will be in a position to settle for FGs in this one.
The Bills DST ($5,400) playing at home against a struggling Steelers offense should be able to put the pressure on. They have a total of 54 sacks on the season with 32 turnovers. Against Rudolph, who has struggled with sacks and turnovers in his career this could be a long day. Think you could see them being popular though. I don’t mind them as a sneaky CPT pick in some GPP lineups here. The Steelers DST ($3,400) have been a big reason that the team have managed to make the playoffs, making plays and keeping the scores low. They really have their hands full here on the road against Allen and this Bills offense. GPP play at best.
So, there are our DraftKings selections for the Wildcard Showdown 2023 – Pittsburgh @Buffalo! Remember any DFS questions, you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports