It seems every single fantasy football player agrees on who should be the top two QB’s in dynasty drafts, but who is QB3? There seems to be some consensus on the next tier of QBs but which one should be the QB3? So far this offseason I have seen each of Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray go as the QB3 in startups. They’re all pretty fantastic options but which one should the QB3?
(all ADP’s are from DLF and using Superflex ADP)
Dynasty Drafts QB3 Candidate: Dak Prescott (DAL)
ADP 8 QB3 AGE: 26
Dak finished last year as the QB2. But was closer in points to Matt Ryan as QB11 than Lamar as the QB1. This QB2 overall finish capped his fourth consecutive QB1 finish. When you take that into account the additions the offence have made, it’s easy to see why he’s being drafted at QB3. The Cowboys have moved on from Jason Garrett as HC. Instead, they brought in the now analytically minded (not fully buying it personally) Mike McCarthy.
But perhaps most importantly, they retained Kellen Moore who seemed to understand the modern offence. He combined an elite run game, pre-snap motion and play-action to put Dak in the best situation to succeed.
You then add to all of this the upgrades the Cowboys offense has made. In the draft, they added top prospect CeeDee Lamb to an already fantastic 1-2 punch with Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper. They also re-signed Blake Jarwin to replace the now-departed Jason Witten which will be an upgrade in the passing game immediately.
Dak is 26 and is currently playing under the franchise tag. I don’t foresee him being allowed to go anywhere next season. The Cowboys will either tagg him again next year or get a long term deal done. I do have a slight concern about the longevity of the rest of the offense staying together. But, it seems that no major pieces are going anywhere for the next two years.
It’s hard not to love Dak. He’s got a proven track record of performing, is just entering his prime, has an elite offence around him, a forward thinking play caller, adds value with his legs and has a poor defence that could be getting worse.
Dynasty Drafts QB3 Candidate: Deshaun Watson (HOU)
ADP 9 QB4 AGE: 24
Deshaun finished as the QB5 last year marking his 2nd consecutive top 5 finish. He combines elite production through the air with the konami code of added rushing upside. Watson is 24 years old and should be tied down long term when his contract is due after the 2021 season. A dynasty owner dreams of a combination of fantastic age, elite production and a great situation. Long term Watson ticks every box.
In what was certainly an interesting offseason he lost perhaps the best receiver in the league but actually you could argue he saw a bump in the overall talent of his receiving core. The 2019 Texans receivers to top 50 targets were DeAndre Hopkins… and that’s the end of the list. Will fuller continued to be unable to stay healthy, Duke Johnson remains criminally underused and Keke Coutee didn’t take the step forward many expected.
The 2020 Texans are moving forward with Will Fuller (will he finally stay healthy?) Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Cooks and Cobb aren’t the receiver Hopkins is but will the sum of them add up to be greater than Hopkins? Quite possibly. You combine this with the step forward for the passing game moving from Carold Hyde to David Johnson and you can start to see an overall upgrade.
There has been quite a lot written through the offseason about how Hopkins leaving means Watson will fall from his 2018 and 2019 levels. Personally I just don’t see it. I think he’ll continue to perform as an elite option for the foreseeable future.
Dynasty Drafts QB3 Candidate: Kyler Murray (ARI)
ADP 9.25 QB5 AGE: 22
Nothing can slow the Kyler Hype train this offseason. Finishing last season as the QB7, an improved offense in year two of Kliff Kingsbury, a projected up-tick in passing volume, trading for a true alpha in DeAndre Hopkins and a hope that he will increase his rushing volume it is very easy to understand why Murray’s projection is sky-high.
Last year Kyler had to deal with a plethora of injuries to the offence. Infact, Larry Fitzgerald was the only Cardinals skill position player of note to play in all 16 games.
Hopefully after the addition of Hopkins (who has missed 2 games in his career), and consistent health from other weapons. The running game should also be more consistent with Drake and Edmonds. It will allow Kyler to take that next step in his career.
Age 22 and entering his second year he could very well make it 3 2nd year QBs in a row winning the league MVP! At this point in their respective careers Lamar and Mahomes were drafted much lower than Kyler. Does this mean his ceiling could be higher? Or are we projecting him too highly? Kyler has absolutely everything you could want from an elite QB and if he does get close to his ceiling you could be looking at 10-15 years of elite production.
Dynasty Drafts QB3 Candidate: Russell Wilson (SEA)
ADP 14 QB6 AGE: 31
Is Russell Wilson the most underrated fantasy player of recent times? He has finished as an overall QB1 every year since he entered the league in 2012 including three top 3 finishes and a QB1 finish in 2017. Not bad for a QB in a rush first offence. As with all of the other QBs in this list he combines elite passing production and a rushing floor. However, what separates Wilson from the rest is his incredible efficiency, Seattle was 24th in the league in pass attempts per game and yet he finished last year as the QB4.
Wilson is signed through 2023 and it’s hard to imagine him playing anywhere else. He has some elite receivers in Tyler Lockett and the man mountain DK Metcalf. The biggest hit on Wilson at this points is his age but in dynasty formats I always try to operate in 2-3 year windows and he should certainly continue that elite production in that timescale.
The Decision
Let’s be honest all four of these guys are great options and you’d feel delighted building around any one of them for the next 3 seasons in any Dynasty format. But which one would I take as the QB3?
In my opinion there is a big difference between Kyler and the other 3 QBs. Kyler has only performed once (even then he was only QB7) and a lot of his hype is projection, this concerns me as it was only a year ago Baker Mayfield was being drafted as a top 3 QB. I would feel much more comfortable with the established performance of Watson, Wilson or Dak. The age difference between Wilson and the others is enough to drop him down slightly. It sounds ridiculous when he should have another 5 years of elite production but as he begins to approach that age 35 mark his performance may not drop but his overall value will do.
This leaves a straight up decision between Dak and DeShaun. Whilst I don’t buy the loss of Hopkins will have a huge impact on Deshauns production at this point in drafts I’d rather go with the QB that has improved his situation drastically rather than lost his number 1 target. Which leaves me with Dak as my QB3.
My Rankings:
QB3 – Dak Prescott
QB4 – Deshaun Watson
QB5 – Russell Wilson
QB6 – Kyler Murray
So, there we have it! What do you think? If you do your own analysis please share it! You can find us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Image Credit: Kevin Jairaj – USA TODAY Sports
