Last year, for a bit of fun, I ranked the SEC Quarterbacks against the Bill Parcells’ rules for drafting a quarterback. I wondered if the legendary Hall of Fame coaches methods held any weight in today’s game, a game that has changed so much since his heyday.
For any younger readers or those newer to the game, Bill Parcells was a two-time Superbowl-winning head coach with the New York Giants. His career also included stints as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets and New England Patriots.
What did Parcells say?
Parcells’ rules are somewhat outdated and amazingly don’t look at anything a QB puts on tape. This is a shock to a film junkie like me, but hopefully you’ll see the “rules” still add an interesting wrinkle in helping us separate incoming classes of quarterbacks.
Parcells’ rules focussed on traits and personality more so than what showed up on tape. He believed the biggest thing his quarterback needed was the ability to lead. You must have played a high level, acquired significant reps to master the system and demonstrate the commitment needed to succeed in life not just in football.
Of course the game itself has changed and some of the benchmarks are easier to reach today with the modern passing attacks being utilised in the college game.
All of this got me thinking, could the legendary coaches rules help us finding the right quarterbacks for our dynasty rosters?
The Rules
For Parcells to consider drafting a quarterback they must meet the following seven criteria;
- Be a three-year starter
- Be a senior in college
- Graduate from college
- Start 30 games
- Win 23 games
- Post a 2:1 Touchdown to interception ratio
- Complete at least 60% of passes thrown
Hits and misses using the Parcells’ Rules
Over the years, using this methodology there have been several noticeable hits and misses. There are QB’s who would go on to have excellent careers that Bill Parcells simply wouldn’t have selected.
Hits
- Matthew Stafford
- Drew Brees
- Andrew Luck
- Lamar Jackson
- Kirk Cousins
- Derek Carr
- Brock Purdy
Misses
- Kyler Murray
- Cam Newton
- Tom Brady
- Aaron Rodgers
- Pat Mahomes
- Josh Allen
So it’s clear the system isn’t perfect, these guys have been or are currently still elite NFL quarterbacks and dominant fantasy football assets. Therefore you need not apply the “rules” stringently like Parcells did, rather use them as a guideline.
Avoiding Busts
This, however, is where I think the focus should be. The system would have helped us avoid these significant bust picks at the most important position in a Superflex league (note next to the names are how many of the criteria they hit).
- Mitch Trubisky (2/7)
- Trey Lance (2/7)
- Zach Wilson (3/7)
- Justin Fields (2/7)
- Sam Darnold (2/7)
Remember if you are in a rebuild getting your QB wrong can set you back years. Take it from a guy who over-drafted Justin Fields. It would appear the experience and reps are somewhat more of an indicator of stability and durability at the position rather than necessarily success. Many of the names in the bust list were late risers or one year starters meaning they lacked the requisite snaps.
An interesting winner last year
The runaway winner last year, when I completed this exercise, was a certain LSU quarterback by the name of Jayden Daniels. Daniels met 7/7 of the Parcells’ rules before taking a snap last season. Fast forward a year and Daniels is a Heisman Trophy winner and was the number two overall pick in the NFL draft selected by the Washington Commanders.
Whilst nobody could have foreseen such an incredible ascension by Daniels, should we have been more aware of him coming into his final season as a real fantasy prospect? As a keen Devy player, he was available in depleted rookie drafts in over 80% of my leagues. We missed him!
This off-season in dynasty, Daniels was a sure-fire first-round rookie pick and is currently ranked as QB12 on Fantasy Pros dynasty rankings with a start-up ADP of 28.9 in Superflex leagues on sleeper.
Will he be a success? Not necessarily. After all Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder also scored highly using the Parcells’ rules. They’re warming benches for teams who didn’t draft them this year. No, we can’t be certain, but we can see on tape things Daniels can do that they couldn’t. The film is a layer we can add to our decision making process as dynasty GM’s.
The summer 2023 list in review
- Jayden Daniels (7/7)
- Spencer Rattler (6/7)
- Devin Leary (6/7)
- Will Rogers (5/7)
- KJ Jefferson (4/7)
- Joe Milton (3/7)
- Jaxson Dart (1/7)
As well as the clear winner in Daniels, Spencer Rattler, and Devin Leary both went drafted on day 3 of the NFL draft.
Rattler is looking strong at Saints training camp and is already running with the second string ahead of Jake Haener. Leary meanwhile, is a developmental back up for the Ravens. Can we begin to see a pattern between drafting and the Parcells’ rules?
Milton’s data was skewed by COVID eligibility he only hit two other meaningful criteria. It’s no surprise here he was a UDFA unlikely to make any impact on your dynasty roster. Jefferson and Rogers have both transferred to new schools but are likely well off being draftable prospects at this point. After all not all college QB’s are created equally.
You’ll also see Jaxson Dart has returned to Ole Miss this season and scores much more favourably this time around. Evidence perhaps how more time in the collegiate game can benefit a prospects chances of making an impact on our dynasty teams.
Looking forward to 2025
If you want a better look at the 2025 rookie class, click here to see Tyler’s review. Right now the forthcoming QB class doesn’t have a stand-out runaway QB1. There isn’t a Caleb Williams or Bryce Young who won a Heisman as an underclassman that everybody knew about as a lock for the NFL number one overall pick.
Casual dynasty fans may be hearing “It’s a down year for QBs”. Maybe in a pack, we are struggling to separate, the Parcells’ rules could be a way of identifying the QBs we should be targeting or avoiding? Let’s have a look at how some of the likely 2025 crop of QBs currently measure up.
Carson Beck (Georgia Bulldogs)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ☑️(this will be year 4)
Graduate from college ☑️ (degree in sports management communications and public relations)
Start 30 games ❎
Win 23 games ❎ (currently 22)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (30:8)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (71.1% off 475 attempts)
Current score 4/7 – Beck will almost certainly hit another box as he’s only one win away from meeting that 23 game threshold. Combine this with his tape and feel happy this guy is the real deal.
Jalen Milroe (Alabama Crimson Tide)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ☑️ (Senior season incoming)
Graduate from college ☑️ (Business and entrepreneurship degree)
Start 30 games ❎
Win 23 games ☑️ (He’s at 23 wins not necessarily all as a starter)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (29:9)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (64.7%)
Current score 5/7 – I’m giving him his 23 college wins with the acknowledgment he hasn’t started all those games but he did throw passes in them. He should crack it on his own this year anyway and is on track to tie with Carson Beck.
You’d like to see his pass completion percentage continue to rise. He lacks the ultimate experience to set himself apart by not being a three-year starter. As far as the tape goes he can be maddeningly inconsistent and needs to do a better job speeding up his internal clock and feeling the rush.
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado Buffalos)
Be a three-year starter ☑️
Be a senior in college ☑️ (This will be senior season)
Graduate from college cross ❎
Start 30 games ☑️
Win 23 games ☑️ (25 wins, 21 at Jackson State in the SWAC, only 4 wins in the FBS Level)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (97:19)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (68.7% off 1326 attempts)
Current score 6/7 – So Sanders comes in to the lead with 6 boxes already ticked! He would need to finish his sociology degree to hit all 7.
His completion percentage is certainly impressive given the volume of passes he has attempted. I saw him go 1.01 in a recent Devy draft (start up) which just shows the hype he’s got. The tape shows lots of areas for growth but he is certainly a name to look out for.
Quinn Ewers, (Texas Longhorns)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ❎ (red shirt junior)
Graduate from college ❎
Start 30 games ❎ (21)
Win 23 games ❎ (16)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (37:12)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (64.3)
Current score 2/7 – Quinn Ewers has experience. His red shirt freshman season will not be a waste. This shows how the game has changed, with him transferring to Texas. But this is the Parcells’ rules. I don’t make them!
He is not a senior. He should be a three year starter by seasons end but Arch Manning’s presence keeps the Texas QB room as one of college footballs most interesting stories.
Should reach the starts and wins and if he graduates, should finish as high as 6/7.
Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss Rebels)
Be a three-year starter ❎ (took over midway through freshman season before transferring to Ole Miss from USC)
Be a senior in college ☑️
Graduate from college ❎
Start 30 games ☑️ (31)
Win 23 games ❎ (21)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (52:21)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (63.3%)
Current score 4/7 – Should go on to check all 7 boxes and could be a dark horse in the 2025 QB landscape. Only two wins away from the 23 wins threshold. And he is the unrivalled starter for Lane Kiffin this year. Assuming he graduates he’s our first “TRUE” projected 7/7. I say true because of Sanders spending two years at the FCS level.
He’s lost Judkins but gained Juice Wells to pair with Tre Harris. It really is wheels up for Jaxson Dart. Interesting that only one season beats the 2:1 TD vs interception ratio but by such a margin it helps his overall career ratio.
Riley Leonard (Notre Dame)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ☑️ (senior season incoming)
Graduate from college ❎
Start 30 games ❎
Win 23 games ❎ (currently 13 can Notre Dame win 10 games this year)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (24:10)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (61.8%)
Current score 3/7 – Not bad for the new fighting Irish QB. Injury curtailed his 2023 season but given his dual threat ability and the leadership skills he’s displayed at Duke, a good year this year could really help. I think he has a ceiling as a Day 3 pick but who knows.
Cam Ward (Miami Hurricanes)
Be a three-year starter ☑️ 2 years at Incarnate Ward and 2 years at Washington State
Be a senior in college ☑️
Graduate from college ☑️ by definition he’s a graduate transfer
Start 30 games ☑️
Win 23 games ☑️
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio tick ☑️ (119:30)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (64.5%)
Current score 7/7 – Like Daniels last summer, Ward enters the season ticking every box. Interestingly Ward declared for the 2024 draft before learning he’d be a round 3 – round 5 pick so decided to go back to school and transfer to Miami. Could a Jayden Daniels / Joe Burrow style breakout be on the cards? He’s not generating that buzz at the moment, but he’s a name to watch.
Conner Weigman (Texas A&M Aggies)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ❎
Graduate from college ❎
Start 30 games ❎
Win 23 games ❎
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (16:2)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ☑️ (61.7%)
Current score 2/7 – This seems a little harsh on Weigman. He is an undoubted talent with two injury ravaged seasons. Could he hold off to 2026? If he declares I would not feel comfortable taking him high in rookie drafts given his lack of experience.
Drew Allar (Penn State Nittany Lions)
Be a three-year starter ❎
Be a senior in college ❎
Graduate from college ❎
Start 30 games ❎ (one season starter)
Win 23 games ❎ (19 not all as starter)
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio ☑️ (29:2)
Complete at least 60 percent of passes thrown ❎ (59.7%)
Current score 1/7 – Allar is going into his true junior and is a one year starter. He was a big time recruit so may be a name you know even if you don’t follow college football.
He didn’t look great last year and if the spring game is anything to go by, it might not be a whole lot better in the short term. Then again there’s nothing to say he’ll even declare for the 2025 NFL draft. He can hit a couple of these metrics with adding the necessary playing experience and he doesn’t turn the ball over. But the completion percentage has got to improve, He’d be off my draft board full stop if this doesn’t improve!
Bill Parcells’ Power Rankings
- Cameron Ward 7/7
- Shedeur Sanders 6/7
- Jalen Milroe 5/7
- Carson Beck 4/7
- Jaxson Dart 4/7
- Riley Leonard 3/7
- Quinn Ewers 2/7
- Conner Weigman 2/7
- Drew Allar 1/7
The advice bit…
Yes, this methodology is dated. Yes, the game has moved on since the Parcells’ rules were used in the league. No you shouldn’t use this and this alone to guide you to draft your Dynasty team’s quarterbacks, I hope I’ve shown you that that would be a silly thing to do.
However, there are nuggets we can takeaway to add to our process as a dynasty GM.
- The 60% completion rate is a must. It’s a low number for todays game. If they can’t hit it in college, they’re not hitting it in the league no matter how athletic they may be and what arm angles they can release from.
- Snaps matter. Look for guys with an established record of playing and winning games.
- Unless their are exceptional circumstances, avoid one year starters.
- Don’t use these rules as commandments for drafting. Otherwise you end up with a team of Ridder’s and Pickett’s. Line them up next to what you see on tape to help you clear up your rankings.
- Watch out for Cam Ward 😉
