As we get set to kick off the 2023 NFL season, let’s take a look at some early season schedules to target and avoid for fantasy football. For the purposes of this article, I will be using standard DST scoring from Sleeper.
Quarterback
Target
Analysis:
Not much to see here. If Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert weren’t already prime quarterback targets, they will be after Week 4. All four have an easy start to the season and should start the season hot. Russell Wilson could be an interesting bi-low candidate as the Bronco’s offence has an easy path to finding their way back to relevance. If Wilson and the Broncos are able to find their rhythm it could be a huge start to the season for them. The most interesting option is Jordan Love of the Packers. While there are tons of questions surrounding this offence, they get a cupcake schedule to start the season. If they can figure it out, they could surprise some people.
Avoid
Analysis:
I will start with Ryan Tannehill as he is the one who I think could be hurt most by this schedule. If Tannehill and the Titans don’t find a way to overcome a tough schedule, Tannehill may not have a starting job for much longer. They are going to have to score early and often. Lamar Jackson will face stiff competition to start the season, but his rushing upside will give him more than enough safety to overcome the schedule. Although it could cap the ceiling for their offence.
Tua Tagovailoa, Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell are all much riskier to start the season. Tagovailoa would normally be the easy choice to overcome, but all it takes is one hit against a tough defence and it all comes crashing down. Pickett and Howell on the other hand were already facing an uphill battle to succeed. Add in tough matchups and they are likely to find their way to waiver wires early in the season. Consider stashing them or buying low after week 4.
Running Back
Target
Analysis: As if Christian McCaffrey wasn’t good enough already, he gets one of the easiest running back schedules to start the season. Expect fireworks. The Steelers and Ravens both start the season with three of the best ten matchups for running backs. Najee Harris should volume his way into the RB1 conversation and if JK Dobbins is back to full health, he could find himself inside the top five very quickly. Another potential top-five running back to start the season is Jahmyr Gibbs. The combination of an easy schedule and a Jameson Williams suspension should give Gibbs a hot start to his career. Finally, we see Travis Etienne who should produce solid RB2 numbers against this slate of run defences as long as rookie Tank Bigsby doesn’t vulture too many of his touchdowns.
Avoid
Analysis: As if the Jets and Patriots backfields weren’t already scary enough, take a look at their schedule to start the season. It’s truly a nightmare set of opponents. I don’t have many shares of these backfields. I was afraid of them both, to begin with, this just further solidifies them as overvalued options. The Eagles are another one of the East Division teams whose backfield I am avoiding. The Eagles sport a potential three-headed monster in the backfield and have easily the worst running back schedule in the league. If they experience any Super Bowl hangover, they could sink a lot of fantasy teams early in the season. James Conner and Nick Chubb are both the only person in their backfield and as such will likely volume their way through a rough schedule in the first month, but don’t expect many boom weeks.
Wide Receiver
Target
Analysis: There is a group of four receivers in this category that are about to absolutely explode in month one of the fantasy season. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Christian Watson and Drake London all project to get off to a fast start. All have very easy schedules to start the season, and none face any serious receiver competition. If you roster any of them, enjoy September! The Chargers are the final team that has an easy schedule to start the year, the only reason they have less upside is that they are much more likely to spread the ball around. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston could all see a nice bump in production to start the season, even if the high ceiling isn’t there.
Avoid
Analysis: Bad news for CeeDee Lamb to start the season. The Cowboys have a murderer’s row of defences to face in the first month of the season. Surely, he will find a way to be fantasy-relevant, just don’t expect him to set the world on fire early in the season. The next worse schedule falls to Cooper Kupp and the Rams pass-catchers. The only difference is that this offence may not be able to overcome it.
Kupp is an avoid for me at his current cost in what figures to be a bad offence, against tough competition. The Ravens and Commanders also have tough defences early, although they have more pass-catching options so they may be able to spread the ball around enough to not feel the pain too much. The final schedule belongs to the Bills and is more of a mediocre schedule than a bad one. The Bills will score, and Diggs is the man. He won’t feel the heat early, play him confidently.
Tight End
Target
Analysis: Tight end is one of the most matchup-dependent positions in fantasy football, mainly because most of them aren’t good options. To start the season we see three tight ends who could see red-hot starts. George Kittle, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett all face easy opponents in September and could return instant value at the position. The Seahawks and Cowboys also have great early schedules, unfortunately, neither team has a defined depth chart at the position and could prove to be too volatile, even with the easy schedule.
Avoid
Analysis: I had little hope for the Jets’ tight ends, so a bad schedule to start the season means very little. The Buccaneers, Cardinals and Titans are all teams that sport young tight ends that I am keeping an eye on. Those young guns may get off to a slow start though as all three will likely see their offences struggle early on. The most disappointing one is Pat Freiermuth. He is a low-end TE1, but with a tough schedule, he could start slow and find himself as a prime buy-low candidate come October.
Kicker
Target
Analysis: Like tight end, the kicker is mostly matchup-dependent. So to have the best kicker in the game, Justin Tucker, start off with an easy schedule is a huge bonus. He’s an easy must-start kicker. Rookies Brandon Aubrey and Jake Moody look to get off to solid starts to their NFL careers with easy schedules. I would wait at least one game to see if they are trustworthy players. Eddy Pineiro and Matt Gay are veterans who are simply mid-range kickers, but with the extra boost from a favourable schedule, they should be started to kick off the season.
Avoid
Analysis: We have some good kickers on the list of players with bad matchups. So there will likely be a lot of managers getting poor kicker performances to start the year. Greg Joseph, Jake Elliott, Will Lutz and Greg Zuerlein are all top-15 kickers in ADP. That means that most of you will be forced to start one of them even in a bad matchup. If you’ve already drafted them, you have no choice but to bite the bullet and play them unless there is a better option on the waiver wire. The final kicker is outside the top 20 in ADP so he will likely spend the season on waivers anyway, and that’s Cairo Santos. He can be comfortably left undrafted.
DST
Target
Analysis: A good defence against weak offences and rookie quarterbacks is the formula for success with DST. Here are the top five DSTs for the first month of the season if you’re looking to stream the position. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland and Denver are by far the best schedules to target, although all five teams were likely drafted in your league. If you drafted them, enjoy the bonus.
Avoid
Analysis: DSTs are the easiest to project. You don’t start your DST against a high-flying offence no matter who you drafted. This is why so many fantasy managers stream DST. So with that in mind, it’s best to leave the Jets, Dolphins, Lions, Falcons and Cardinals for another manager, unless you want to be carrying two defences early that is. To be fair though, most managers weren’t drafting any of those options anyway except for the Jets.
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Image Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports
