Taking a quarterback in a late-round of your draft has long been spoken about by fantasy players. The last few Madden covers have been QBs and they score the most points. So surely, you should be getting one early? Nope! It’s one of the most common mistakes that new fantasy owners make. They know the stars of the NFL and want them on their roster. Which is fine- it’s just not the best play.
ADP & Performance from 2020
One of the easiest ways to show the depth at the position is looking at the points per game of players that were drafted in each round last season. That gives the following:
|Number of Players Drafted
So, as you can see you were able to get top fantasy talent in the 8th round last year. Sure, that was massively helped by Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen, but equally there isn’t the same drop-off that you get at other positions.
The below graph shows the points per game difference between each player ranking weekly (so QB1 and QB2, RB1 and RB2 etc)
As you can see, the drop off at RB and WR is by far the steepest, and the shallowest dropoff is at QB. Again highlighting that you can afford to get the QB5 any given week, and you will be better off that the difference between RB1 and RB5.
In taking a QB early, you are removing your ability to get a top-tier talent at either RB or WR. That leads us to a popular strategy for fantasy…..
Streaming The Position
Streaming the position means you aren’t fixed to one player. Instead, you are happy to switch each week. Either by rotating with a bench option, or picking up another from the waiver wire. This strategy is more about the situation, rather than individual talent.
Starting Out The Season
Truly, when people say at the draft they are going to stream they shouldn’t be aiming for that. Instead, you should look to target a player that could blow up and become your every-week starter. Examples of this for the past few seasons are Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. That is really what you are hoping for. Find that player that can break out and you can have in your lineup all season. However, you aren’t always going to pick up that player that is going to pan out.
Is Streaming Effective?
In a word- yes. Last season, how many different QBs do you think finished in the top 12? Well, I can tell you there were 41! The season before? 39. That’s more than the number of teams in the league! So yes, there are plenty of opportunities to have a good performance from someone you pick up late. So in targeting a streamer what are the things to look for?
Target Bad Defenses
This is obvious. You want your new starting player to have a matchup that should mean he has the best chance of scoring points. You are looking for poor secondary matchups against wide receivers. If the team has a stout running defense even better, as a competent OC will throw the ball instead of rushing it.
QBs At Home
If you’ve ever owned Ben Roethlisberger, you know the pain of home splits. While not all QBs have the issue to the same extent- typically they perform better when they are at home.
Remember, when it comes to ‘streaming’ you would like to find that late-round Quarterback that hits. But, don’t see what isn’t there. Each week you are looking to try and hit on a QB that has an easy matchup. So you might think you’ve found that guy. If that is truly the case, bench him and see if there is a dropoff. No dropoff? No problem, you found your guy. If there is, move on and try and find that guy that will take you to the championship.
Image Credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports