One tactic that has long intrigued savvy managers is the art of stacking- pairing a quarterback (QB) with a tight end (TE) or wide receiver (WR) from the same NFL team. But how effective is this strategy?
In this comprehensive guide, we’ll dissect the science and statistics behind stacking, helping you make informed decisions for your upcoming draft.
The Logic Behind Stacking
Stacking is not merely a gimmick; it’s a calculated strategy that aims to capitalize on correlated success. When a QB throws a touchdown to his TE or WR, you benefit twice. However, the key question is whether this strategy offers a better return on investment than non-stacked pairings? We use the Average Draft Position (ADP) concept as a baseline value of these players to answer this. ADP serves as a proxy for a player’s perceived value among fantasy managers. By incorporating ADP into our evaluation metric, we can assess whether a stacked pairing offers more value per draft capital spent compared to selecting players from different teams.
The Evaluation Metric
Our Python algorithm calculates an “Evaluation Metric” for each potential QB-TE and QB-WR duo. In our quest to provide the most accurate and actionable insights, I’ve updated the evaluation metric formula to better balance projected fantasy points and Average Draft Position (ADP).
Formula: weight × 23 Proj Fantasy Points + ( 1 − weight ) × ( 1/Total ADP )
This metric allows us to put a customizable emphasis on projected fantasy points through the “weight” parameter, while still accounting for the ADP. A higher value of this metric indicates a better return on investment, enabling you to make more informed draft decisions.
Standard vs. PPR Leagues
Deep Dive into the Data
Stacking is not merely a gimmick; it’s a calculated strategy that aims to capitalize on correlated success. When a QB throws a touchdown to his TE or WR, you benefit twice. However, the key question is whether this strategy offers a better return on investment than non-stacked pairings? We use the Average Draft Position (ADP) concept as a baseline value of these players to answer this. ADP serves as a proxy for a player’s perceived value among fantasy managers. By incorporating ADP into our evaluation metric, we can assess whether a stacked pairing offers more value per draft capital spent compared to selecting players from different teams.
Top-Rated Metrics
QB-TE
Kansas City (KC) leads the pack in the QB-TE category with the highest normalized evaluation metric. This suggests that their high projected points for the season offer excellent value, even when accounting for a lower ADP. Baltimore (BAL) and Philadelphia (PHI) also make the top three, reinforcing the idea that high projected points can significantly outweigh ADP considerations.
| Category | Rank | Team | Normalized Metric Value | Combined ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
QB-TE | 1 | KC | 1.00 | 18.6 |
QB-TE | 2 | BAL | .685 | 61.7 |
QB-TE | 3 | PHI | .645 | 86.2 |
QB-WR1
For QB-WR1 pairings, Buffalo (BUF) and Cincinnati (CIN) are the top contenders. Both teams offer high projected points, making them excellent choices for your fantasy roster. It’s worth noting that Minnesota (MIN), despite having high projected points, is affected by a higher ADP, which impacts its evaluation metric and takes the duo out of the top 5.
| Category | Rank | Team | Normalized Metric Value | Combined ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
QB-WR1 | 1 | BUF | 1.00 | 31.9 |
QB-WR1 | 2 | CIN | .992 | 38.4 |
QB-WR1 | 3 | PHI | .889 | 36.0 |
QB-WR2
In the QB-WR2 category, Philadelphia (PHI) takes the top spot, followed closely by Cincinnati (CIN) and Buffalo (BUF). These teams offer strong WR2 options, which could be valuable assets in deeper leagues or as flex options.
| Category | Rank | Team | Normalized Metric Value | Combined ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
QB-WR2 | 1 | PHI | 1.00 | 53.6 |
QB-WR2 | 2 | CIN | .906 | 63.6 |
QB-WR2 | 3 | .BUF | .837 | 122.8 |
Pairs to Avoid
While stacking can be a potent strategy, it’s essential to be cautious about certain pairings that may not offer good value. For example, in the QB-WR2 category, Houston (HOU) and Atlanta (ATL) rank at the bottom of our evaluation metric. These teams have low projected points and high ADP, making them less desirable options for a stacking strategy. Similarly, in the QB-TE category, Tampa Bay (TB) appears to offer the least value, indicating that you might be better off exploring other options. By steering clear of these less promising stacks, you can optimize your draft strategy and maximize your team’s potential.
Balancing Projected Points and ADP
The updated metric formula allows for a more nuanced approach to balancing projected points and ADP. Teams like KC, BAL, and MIN in the QB-TE category show that a high projected point total can offer better value than what their ADP might initially suggest. This balance is crucial for a well-rounded draft strategy, especially when employing a stacking strategy.
Conclusion
Stacking is a nuanced strategy with varying degrees of effectiveness based on league format, scoring rules, and individual risk tolerance. Our updated, data-driven evaluation metric provides a robust framework for identifying high-value QB-TE and QB-WR duos. It factors in both past performance and future draft value, allowing you to draft smarter, not harder. The metric shows that the ‘blue chip’ pairs are often still worth their draft capital. However, for pairs such has Tua + Waddle/Hill or Cousins + Jefferson, the lower projected points for the QBs brings their metric rating down, showing that these stacks may not be as good as they seem on paper. As you prepare for your 2023 fantasy draft, this guide serves as a comprehensive resource for leveraging the stacking strategy to its fullest potential. Happy drafting!
Remember you can check out our articles here. Or you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Author: Rod A, Twitter
Image Credit: Jim Rassol – USA TODAY Sport
