Here we are the playoff season of the NFL 2020 season, and time for my DraftKings Week 15 Selections. For those of you whose fantasy football seasons may be over, there is no better time to get involved with Daily Fantasy Football, especially with the actual playoffs just around the corner!
Throughout the season, I have been providing players that I feel you should be including in your lineups, with some rationale and this week is no different! So, let’s dig into whom I am thinking of slotting in my lineups!
Lamar Jackson ($7,500)
The Jackson we have been seeing the past few weeks is one is very reminiscent of his 2019 self.
This has been evident through Jackson’s efforts in the rushing game with the Baltimore QB 218 yards and 3 touchdowns these last two games, and it has reflected in Baltimore’s results.
Now in Week 15, Jackson and Baltimore take on Jacksonville, the league’s 30th overall rush defense, allowing 145.5 yards per game on the ground.
Jackson’s 17 pass attempts in each of the past two weeks may put many off paying the premium for the QB here but Jackson with his high rushing floor is an excellent play in Week 15.
Mitch Trubisky ($5,500)
In Week 14, the Chicago QB was not a play I was keen on purely because of his lack of touchdown-upside. However, Trubisky proved me wrong in Week Fourteen, throwing for three touchdowns and a 25 DK point performance.
Chicago now has a Minnesota defense in Week 15, who have allowed 266 passing yards per game this season, ranking 23rd in the league and their 26 passing touchdowns allowed ranks only two behind the league leaders New York at 28.
Trubisky is one of the better value plays on the slate this week and will be very much apart of my lineup builds in Week 15.
Honourable Mention: Tom Brady ($6,600) – Pass-heavy game script against a bad secondary in Atlanta, giving up 295 passing yards per game, ranking 30th in the league and the most DK points per game to the QB position (25.9).
Jonathan Taylor ($7,200)
For three weeks straight now, Taylor has appeared to be the main back in the Indianapolis backfield. 26 touches in Week 11, 16 in Week 13 and 22 in Week 14 empathise those claims.
The rookie running back has rewarded the increase in usage, averaging 110.3 rushing yards, 27.7 receiving yards and 0.33 TDs. All those averages have resulted in Taylor averaging 23.8 DK points per game over these three weeks.
Taylor could not face a better matchup in Week 15, taking on Houston, a team who give up the most DK points to the running back position, at a per-game rate of 32.4.
JK Dobbins ($5,900)
Like Taylor, Dobbins the past three weeks has begun to take over this crowded Baltimore backfield. Double-digit carries have been given to the rookie in each of the last three games, as well as a rushing touchdown in each week.
A big game for Dobbins is brewing and who better to face than Jacksonville in Week 15. The AFC South team have been giving running backs a free pass against them this season to have big games. Derrick Henry was the latest running back to benefit off this, going for 39.2 DK points and was highlighted in last week’s edition of my selections.
Honourable Mention: Jeff Wilson Jr ($5,100) – If Raheem Mostert ($5,800) is a no-go for Sunday, then Wilson is a terrific value play in an exceptional matchup. Dallas allows the most rushing yards per game at 163. Furthermore, Wilson is due a touchdown haul after his efforts over the last two weeks have only warranted one touchdown, despite six red zone carries and the single target.
A.J. Brown ($7,600)
Whenever Brown sees an enhanced target share, the Tennessee wide receiver makes the most of it (W9 – 42.9% target share, 23.1 DK points, W12 – 30% target share, 25.8 DK points and W14 – 39% target share, 27.2 DK points).
Week 14 against Jacksonville also saw Brown excel in a limited game script, which many will see as an issue in putting him in their lineups again this week, with the run game once again expected to dominate.
This, for me, is not an issue, meaning Brown will be my WR1 in many lineups on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300)
The San Francisco rookie has been dominant since Week 7, with his lowest DK points total coming in at 19.7 (5 games). To empathise this further, since Week 9, Aiyuk “is one of three WR averaging 95 yards per game along with Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams” (per @FieldYates).
Mullens has established Aiyuk as his ‘go-to’ when the offense is struggling – Aiyuk’s 36.4% target share last week in the loss to Washington empathising that.
However, these problems should not be an issue against San Fransisco’s Week 15 opponents in Dallas. Dallas has allowed a per game average of 42.1 DK points to the WR position, and Aiyuk as San Francisco’s WR1 following Deebo Samuel’s injury should take full advantage of this.
Richie James ($3,600)
Speaking of Samuel’s injury, this opens the door for James to see an increased target share once again, like in Week 9.
Week 9 saw James take on a 38.2% target share, resulting in 36.4 DK points and the WR1 on the week. Now it is a bit unrealistic to expect a repeat of this, most notably because Aiyuk was also missing in Week 9.
However, a 20-25% target share is more than realistic, which is over double than what James saw in Week 14, where his efforts scored him 6.3 DK points.
As mentioned already, this Dallas pass defense, especially against WRs is poor, and a deep threat like James can take advantage of this.
Note: Keep an eye on the status of George Kittle ($5,300). There is a chance he makes a return in Week 15, which could hamper James’ upside.
Lynn Bowden Jr ($3,600)
When one door closes, another opens. This saying could not be more relevant for Miami right now.
All of their key offensive weapons are in serious doubt to take on New England in Week 15, with some heading off early in the Week 14 loss to Kansas City.
Bowden Jr stepped up in the loss, going for 15.4 DK points, which helped give Miami a fighting chance in taking down the Superbowl champs.
If the statuses of these players remain the same, Bowden will need to be relied upon again and becomes an excellent value play in a challenging slate.
Honourable mention: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500) – In the seventeen games Hilton has faced Houston, he has averaged 19 PPR fantasy points. If you want to make this more DK specific and more recently. Since 2016, Hilton has averaged 24.87 DK points per game against Houston (10 games since 2016). This includes the Indianapolis’ receiver 28 DK point performance in Week 13. Pretty impressive.
Rob Gronkowski ($4,200)
Gronk saw a reduced amount of routes run in Week 14 (14 in total). However, this does not worry me at all in this matchup.
The high points total for Tampa Bay (29.75) and game total (50.5) typically a good recipe for TEs, who need these type of games to achieve volume.
Additionally, Atlanta is a poor red-zone team against TEs, given up 9 TDs so far to the tight end position this season, tied for the third-highest in the league.
Cole Kmet ($3,000)
It should be no surprise to regular readers that Kmet is included in this article for the third week running.
Since Turbisky’s re-introduction at QB, Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in this Chicago offense. Kmet’s snap count decreased slightly from the 95.3% we saw in Week 13 to 85.4% in Week 14, as did his routes run (33 in Week 13 to 24 in Week 14). Despite the reduction in time on the field, the production was still there, 7 targets, 4 receptions and 41 yards the result.
Whilst Kmet is seeing the level of targets he is getting, the production and return of value will always be there.
Honourable Mention: Gearld Everett ($3,100) – A real flip of a coin between Everett and Tyler Higbee ($3,800). Both are running the same amount of routes (both ran 30 in Week 13, Higbee ran 15 in Week 14 to Everett’s 14). I am going with the cheaper of the two purely as a gut call. Los Angeles is taking on New York who gives up the most TDs to TEs in the league (12 in total).
New England ($3,000)
Miami’s offense has been depleted to the bare bones, potentially seeing previously mentioned Bowden Jr as the team’s WR1.
Belichick’s record against rookie QBs like Tagovailoa is profound, 21-5 overall. We saw earlier in the season how Herbert was limited against New England, only scoring 6.36 DK points when he was clearing 20+ DK points every week before that.
The typical selection from myself of picking the opposing defense taking on Seattle and their QB Russell Wilson.
Wilson is being sacked 3.2 times per game on average this season, as well as averaging 0.92 INTs per game (12 INTs thrown in 13 games).
Furthermore, Washington themselves have per-game averages of 0.92 INTs and 3.08 sacks, meeting the averages of what Seattle is giving up, or almost anyway.
NFL 2020: DraftKings Week 15 Selections – My lineup as it stands
QB1: Tom Brady
RB1: Jonathan Taylor
RB2: JK Dobbins
WR1: T.Y. Hilton
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk
WR3: Christian Kirk
TE: Rob Gronkowski
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
So, there are our DraftKings selections for Week 15 of the NFL 2020 season! Who have we missed out? You can find us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram. And remember, if you need some help for your season-long leagues you can find our rankings here.
Image Credit: Tommy Gilligan – USA TODAY Sports