Mid way through the 2024 season- what is Patrick Mahomes Dynasty Value? There’s no doubt that Mahomes is a sure bet, future first ballot hall of famer. Surely we can’t be in a conundrum about his dynasty future? He is the face of the NFL. He has revolutionized the quarterback position with his ability to throw from any arm angle and go off script, scrambling to extend plays in the pocket, producing highlight reel, jaw dropping, clutch moments almost weekly.
For fantasy he’s never finished outside of QB8 since he became the starter in 2019. He has been the overall QB1 twice and QB4 twice. Combine his outrageous talent with a genius head coach in Andy Reid, and surround him with elite playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in seasons past, and he was well deserving of his ADP annually inside the top three picks in super flex leagues.
However, cracks seem to be appearing. Right now on the season Mahomes is QB15 in PPR leagues and he has only had one top 12 weekly finish since the Chiefs bye in week 10 of last season. A man who only ever flip flopped with Josh Allen for the QB1 spot in dynasty rankings is dropping. Currently ranked as QB5 on Keep Trade Cut and QB3 on Fantasy Pros.
Facts are facts, the weekly finishes aren’t there and as a result we are seeing people more willing than ever to part with Mahomes as a dynasty asset. Heck I tried to tier down in one league recently and was firmly rejected. My league mate didn’t want Patrick Mahomes!
Is he washed? Let’s look at the numbers.
Mahomes’ 2024 completion percentage is actually at an all time high. He’s completing 69.4% of his passes through 5 weeks but his ADOT is lower than at any other point in his career at 5.7 yards.
Whilst Mahomes has never been a “dual threat” QB, his ability to improvise and run when required has always meant a sneaky upside. He’s on pace for a career low in rushing yards this season (282) and has a career low 3.6 yards per attempt. For context he had a career high 389 yards last season.
Through 5 games he has 6 passing touchdowns (1.2 per game). That’s a pace of a career low of 20.4 if things don’t change. For context last season was his worst season of his career in this statistic and he managed 33.
Right now PFF has Mahomes ranked as the 18th best passer in the NFL.
Yet his Chiefs team sit 5-0. From an NFL and non fantasy perspective he’s winning. Heck he may go on and win another championship but the fact is the Chiefs are winning in a different way.
Weapons matter
Mahomes is a magician at the quarterback position, but Penn has Teller heck even Paul Daniels had Debbie McGee. Every magician needs a partner or assistant. In seasons past Mahomes could rely on Tyreek Hill a real game breaker and WR1. He even had the luxury of having a prime Travis Kelce the games most dominant fantasy tight end of the last 10 years.
When Mahomes signed his contract extension business decisions had to be made. Hill was allowed to walk and Mahomes still prospered with Kelce leading a supporting cast who shared the load. Kelce is getting older and is starting to show signs of age. He has a famous girlfriend (apparently) and the idea of his retirement is constantly being banded about. So who is the heir apparent?
Mercole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore were all flops. So much so that Jerrick McKinnon had to step up late on in the season (and probably won a lot of people their dynasty championships). Mahomes couldn’t make these receivers dynasty relevant and as Kelce’s powers have waned so has Mahomes’ fantasy dominance.
Rashee Rice was drafted in 2023 and put up 934 yards. He looks like a legitimate playmaker and a WR1 in the making. Isaiah Pacheco has been a bruising complimentary rusher but one who offers limited pass catching upside.
The 2024 supporting cast
In spite of Mahomes turning lemons to lemonade and winning another Super Bowl last season, the Chiefs planned to upgrade his weapons this year. After a somewhat chaotic off season WR1 in which waiting Rashee Rice made headlines for all of the wrong reasons, he was back for his sophomore campaign.
The Chiefs added blistering speed, first in free agency adding Hollywood Brown and then via the draft when they selected the NFL combines all time 40 yard dash record holder Xavier Worthy in the first round. Kelce came back for his age 35 season at tight end and Isaiah Pacheco lead the running back room.
Wheels up for Mahomes as he targets a three-peat. Fast forward to week 5 and Isaiah Pacheco is out with a fractured fibula. Hollywood Brown has a dislocated SC joint in his shoulder. Rashee Rice tore his LCL and required season ending surgery.
Travis Kelce once again will lead the receiving game for the rest of the season supported by Worthy but KC have had to go to the FA scrap heap and gamble on guys like Juju Smith-Schuster. Kareem Hunt has been brought in to lead the running game after experimenting with undrafted converted fullback Carson Steele.
5-0 just how is he doing it?
Outlook for the rest of the season
- Week 7 – San Francisco 49ers (rank 2)
- Week 8 – Las Vegas Raider (rank 31)
- Week 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (rank 20)
- Week 10 – Denver Broncos (rank 5)
- Week 11 – Buffalo Bills (rank 11)
- Week 12 – Carolina Panthers (rank 32)
- Week 13 – Las Vegas Raiders (rank 31)
- Week 14 – Los Angeles Chargers (rank 13)
Fantasy Playoffs
- Week 15 – Cleveland Browns (rank 12)
- Week 16 – Houston Texans (rank 24)
- Week 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers (rank 6)
- Week 18 – Denver Broncos (rank 5)
Having to play three top 12 defenses before the fantasy playoffs is tough sledding given the lack of weapons at his disposal. The playoffs look even tougher with Cleveland and Pittsburgh both tough defenses to play against.
Buy low(er) opportunity
There is an old saying that form is temporary and class is permanent. The Kansas City Chiefs are committed to Mahomes long term and continuing to build around him is a priority for them. I’ve no doubt he’ll make it back to that top 8 QB realm in the future.
However this is fantasy football. A couple of years ago trading with an owner for Mahomes was nearly impossible. He’s still only 29 years old with so much football to play! Right now I believe he’s the perfect target for a rebuilding team. Especially given the lack of a bonafide star in the 2025 class at quarterback.
If he is on the roster of a contender, they’re likely growing tired and agitated at the current lack of production, concerned that their championship aspirations are slipping away. They aren’t thinking about returning weapons next season. They’re living in the here and now desperately wanting that championship.
If your league has no trade deadline (the only true way to play) if the Mahomes owner manages to make the playoffs, I’d be looking to make my move then. During the fantasy playoffs Baker Mayfield plays the Chargers (rank 13), Dallas (rank 18) and Carolina (rank 32).
Kirk Cousins plays Vegas (rank 31), Giants (rank 9), Washington (rank 23) in the playoff weeks. You may be able to package a better short term fix such as Baker Mayfield or Kirk Cousins etc with picks and get Mahomes at a price people would have scoffed at a couple of seasons ago.
Real Trades
Here are three trades for Patrick Mahomes made in the last month via Dynasty Nerds Trade Browser.
Equally I wouldn’t blame a contending manager for selling up. After all the numbers tell us a story about this season. We play to win, and championships and glory last a life time.
The owner is still going to net a nice return in any deal they make.
So if you’re reading this as the owner of a rebuilding team. Stop what you are doing. Go ahead, go and send that trade offer. Thank me later. Also checkout our other KFS DFS articles here, and interact with us on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram. We’re always ready to talk shop and help you build those winning rosters!
