A player that has divided opinion for the 2021 season is Chase Edmonds- here we delve into his profile for the season. Mainly from a best ball angle, but it’s relevant to all forms of fantasy for the 2021 season.
Chase Edmonds- a hole in one
A hole in one. A spectacle in golf where everything lines up. Longitude, Latitude, pin position, wind, luck. I am lucky enough to have one in my life, but everything for a hole-in-one takes incredible alignment from many independent situations. My Fantasy friends, Chase Edmonds could be a 20201 hole-in-one. There are factors brewing that I haven’t seen other Fantasy Analysts bring up with Chase Edmonds, and it might just line up for the perfect scenario for THE mid-round RB. Let’s break down several factors that aren’t mutually exclusive, concerning a potential unicorn 2021 season for Chase Edmonds. It’s important when weighing decision points, if those particular arguments play off one another, or are inclusive. Let’s dive into why Chase Edmonds could be a league-winning back, for a multitude of reasons.
Now, going for glory sometimes means it’s not the most probable scenario. I am not saying to put an inordinate amount of risk on a small back from Fordham. First, we need to understand an important concept I feel many try and outthink when accumulating RBs, with running QBs. Kyler Murray was #4th last season in Carries per game, and #3rd in Red Zone Carries. A check-down specialist needs to be looked at different vs. a QB that calls his own number on a rush. Think about Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and how much they stole in the carry department from their respective RBs over the years. Let’s build our case now like an onion and get down to the nitty gritty once we build our base.
Edmonds the pass-catcher
The pass-catching RB Edmonds on the Arizona Cardinals is a yearned fantasy Caterpillar, like Duke Johnson and Kareem Hunt being obstructed by Nick Chubb, not quite a Butterfly, yet. What would happen if this player got a full season as the primary back? Albeit on a run-first high octane offense? The scenario either needs change, or it remains constant. Either leave the current talent-rich team, or the incumbent back leaves. Let’s rewind the tape and see what happen last year, and why Chase Edmonds did not see his full potential. Last season the Cardinals acquired Kenyan Drake, where he operated as the team’s primary RB. See below for the overwhelming load Kenyan Drake took on, his inefficiencies, and where that leaves us for 2021.
2020 Cardinals Rushing Attack
|Metrics||Kenyan Drake||Chase Edmonds||Kyler Murray|
|Red Zone Touches||57||25||25|
Kenyan Drake 2020
|Goal Line Carries #2||Bredkaway Run Rate #48|
|Red Zone Touches #4||Yards created per Touch #55|
|Team run plays #6||True Yards per Carry #58|
|Carries #7||Juke Rate #59|
|TDs #10||Fantasy Points per Opportunity #101|
|Rush Yards #12||Expected Points Added #167|
Chase Edmonds 2020
#4 Route Participation
#6 Receiving Yards
#7 Yards per Touch
#12 Production Premium
#15 Expected Points Added
#15 Breakaway Run Rate
#20 True Yards Per Carry
There is a feast to be had with this fast-paced offense, which was able to support two top 25 RBs, and a top 5 QB. If Chase Edmonds ate even a little into Drakes run volume and took 15% additional carries from Drake, he would have finished just under 200 Fantasy Points, just behind Antonio Gibson at RB14. Antonio Gibson is Round 2 ADP in 2021 for context.
Again, we are not saying Chase Edmonds is rubbing shoulders with CMC next year, but if given the opportunity his efficiency shows, he can do damage when asked. 11 Touchdowns is not a small amount of work that’s leaving, and Conner has only hit over 7 TDs once in his career. I don’t think Kyler can go deep into double digit TDs, and there is no TE of consequence. Let’s also not forget the 3rd RB in the depth chart. Eno Benjamin did not play one snap last year. His jersey has no stains. He never broke a sweat.
James Conner- A Problem?
Fast forward to the present. Why do I love James Conner going to the Cardinals? OH BABY. Out of the entire field of potential RBs that could have gone to the Cardinals, this is a topdrawer scenario for Chase Edmonds truthers. That’s right. If you are a truther of a player, you want the incoming replacement back to suppress of Edmonds ADP, but with no bite with a big bark. The Cardinals obtain Carlos Hyde or Kerryon Johnson, Edmonds ADP rips to the 4th round. We don’t want that. Cardinals trade for Kareem Hunt or Chris Carson, the situation gets too muddy and turns into a stay away. James Conner has just enough recency bias bite to suppress Edmonds ADP into the 7th round. Conners fragility + inefficiency + big 1st round name on a previous #1 offensive line team = BEST fake Alpha for Chase ADP.
James Conner 2020 Season
#25 Best Ball Points Added
#41 Yards Per Touch
#45 Production Premium
#50 True Yards Per Carry
#80 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity
#118 Expect Points Added
All of this despite…
#8 Game Script
#14 Goal Line Carries
#14 Snap Share
#15 Opportunity Share
Sound familiar? His name is Kenyan Conner, James Drake. It’s the same person. We now need to see if Kliff Kingsbury will waste his chances again on an inefficient runner. James Conners injury risk runs very high in most models. He has yet to play over 14 games a season in his NFL career, and missed his Junior year at Pitt with an MCL tear. Could we see Chase Edmonds as your primary running, pass-catching, hyper efficient back with a 7th round ADP RB, on a run-first team with the number one pace of play in 2021? Yes please.
Running Back Tiers
Let’s take a look at tiers now. Tiers, especially for RB are an important concept when looking at the tranches of different blends of RB. Chase Edmonds just so happens to fall right at the end of the ambiguous starter+ tier. Those in the blue tier, are capable backs who can at least fight to win in all phases and be an RB2+, most catching passes and getting carry work. Those in the red tier, are misfits begging for snaps, a new contract, and not getting replaced by a younger stud. Another positive for Chase Edmonds that he falls at the end of this tier.
Based on the above information, please tell me about Chase Edmonds ADP evolution. Somehow, someway, Chase Edmonds ADP has slightly fallen recently since escaping the draft untouched, and the addition of James ‘Fragility’ Conner. Chase Edmonds also just happens to fall into a very nice ADP place. So nice, he has fallen into my infamous, ‘Cashmeoutsidehowboutdat’ Zone. The definition of this sweet spot is as follows:
‘A player who exceeded his Actuals vs. ADP last season + still currently being drafted at last year’s ADP range + given a more favorable scenario in the upcoming season = Smash Spot’
This brings up a commandment of making money in the Best Ball Bible. For most players, the name of the game is to have your player exceed his ADP vs. his ending year Actuals. A player who does not meet the expectation for his ADP, has generally not hit his consensus. If you draft enough players that beat their ADP, you will accidentally fall in the top 6 consistently. Chose players that beat their forecast, Actuals > Forecast. pretty simple. Last year Chase Edmonds ADP was RB43, with an actual finish of RB26.
We are still able to obtain Chase Edmonds at previous ADP, if patient. Last year we really got to see Kyler humming, and really what this offense can do when moving the ball down the field with the addition of Nuk moving the chains. We want to buy into this offense. Chase Edmonds 2020 ADP range was competing with a 1st round ADP Kenyan Drake, vs. this year’s James Conner in Round 10. Edmonds ADP does not make sense. Are we expecting ARI to have a depleted run game? If anything, last year confirms the team’s pace of play and commitment to run the ball. If Chase Edmonds cannot run the ball, then we can presume James Conner is actually extremely undervalued. Conner could have a heavy workload fall into his lap and be the Zero-RB king of 2021, taking on the Drake roll last year, but 9 rounds later.
Chase Edmonds Recap of Bermuda Triangle level alignment
- ADP Smash
- Tier Smash
- Run-first offense
- High tempo offense
- Pass catching back showing running efficiency
- James Conners fragility, inefficiency
- Heavy opportunity RB1 left in offseason
- Zero 3rd RB of consequence on depth chart
- Escaped NFL Draft unscathed
- Hole in one
Go win your league.
Data courtesy of Playerprofiler.com and Rotoviz.com
Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta – USA TODAY Sports