Of all of the questions I’ve seen, QB scoring & the impact on your draft has to be the biggest one. I’ve seen people say you need to select a QB early (which I just don’t think makes sense) and also talk about the effect on various scoring methods and how it affects the position value.
So I decided to dive into it! In this analysis I’m only talking about standard 1QB leagues. The analysis would vary in 2QB/ Superflex, as the lowest viable starter is then a lot further behind than in a single QB league.
QB Scoring: Should I draft a QB early?
Simply, no. It just doesn’t make sense to do it. If you draft a QB early then you are losing alot of value later in the draft. The reason being that the quality of RB or WR isn’t the same later in the draft.
To illustrate that with an example I’m going to grab ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator for the past two seasons, and look at the Points per game scored by position for each of those players taken in a round;
As you can see, every position drops off significantly- except for QB which stays largely consistent through the draft rounds. So it truly doesn’t make sense to take a QB early, there isn’t enough advantage to make it make sense.
You can happily take a QB in round 9 (eight rounds later than the first round) , and there is only a 3 point difference per game in production. Compare that to taking an RB in round 9, and you are looking at a difference of around 11 points PER GAME. You can’t give up that advantage.
Should I draft a QB early? NO
QB Scoring: 4pt v 6pt TD Scoring
The next thing I’ve seen is that if passing TDs are worth more, then the position becomes more valuable. That’s not really the case though. Instead of making the position more valuable in your draft, what it does is just give you more points to the WHOLE position. Meaning you have a slight spread of the numbers that are effective.
For the below graph I took players that had only played in 8 or more games since 2015, and then applied ‘standard’ scoring to the position (with the exception of changing the points for passing TD)
As you can see from the above- the peak scoring is still the same around 22 players, it’s just shifted a few points per game. Equally, the difference in the peak and the top scorer is the same at fantasy points per game.
Interestingly, from the graph above it actually puts a slightly larger gap between the players that are performing higher than ‘average’. So meaning that it’s that middle tier between elite and average that becomes more valuable (in comparison).
NOTE: The key difference in making a position more valuable when compared to other is the advantage that a player gives you versus the average. Here the difference is still (roughly) the same, meaning that there is no value shift in changing the points awarded for passing TDs. It simply just boosts the points value across the board at the position.
QB Scoring: So when should I draft a QB?
Honestly, there is no right answer. And it’s not a good idea to go into a draft with a predetermined strategy of drafting players in a particular order regardless of who is on the board.
What I’m looking for when I am getting a QB is where do I think the last ‘startable’ QB will go, and who is in that tier. If there are still quite a few players there then I’m not going to take one- I’ll just wait another round. The position is played in such a way that there will always be a viable plug-in on the waiver wire that isn’t going to kill my team.
If your roster (and bench) is deep enough I don’t even mind the strategy of taking two QBs and playing the matchup game between them, as well as options on the waiver wire (or playing the wire a week in advance)
Image credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports