Keon Coleman - WR - Florida State

Keon Coleman parlayed his successful sophomore season at Michigan State into a WR1 role with a team that had national championship aspirations at Florida State. And with Florida State’s success, his name was mentioned a lot more than it would have if he stayed on the 4-8 Spartans team. That media attention got eyes on his skills and more than likely helped his draft stock.

Measurables

Height: 6′ 3″

Weight: 213 lbs

Age: 21

40-yard dash: 4.61s

3-cone drill: DNP

20-yard shuttle: DNP

Vertical Jump: 38″

Broad Jump: 10’7″

Bench Press: DNP

*age is at the start of player’s rookie year

College Stats

Receiving & Rushing Table
ReceivingRushingScrimmage
YearSchoolConfClassPosGRecYdsAvgTDAttYdsAvgTDPlaysYdsAvgTD
*2021Michigan StateBig TenFRWR107507.110007507.11
2022Michigan StateBig TenSO125879813.870005879813.87
*2023Florida StateACCJRWR125065813.211122.005166012.911
CareerOverall115150613.119122.00116150813.019
Michigan State6584813.080006584813.08
Florida State5065813.211122.005166012.911
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2024.

Notable Headlines

Coleman committed to Michigan State as a low four-star recruit coming out of high school per 247Sports. He already had the size as he stood at 6’4” and 200 lbs as a high school recruit, but failed to make an impact on the Michigan State team as a true freshman. With a few veteran receivers leaving after the 2021 season, things opened up for Coleman as he established himself as the WR1 in this offense over current NFL wide receiver Jayden Reed.

But the writing must have been on the wall in East Lansing as the team quickly fell apart in the offseason. Jayden Reed went off to the NFL and there was an obvious tension between Keon Coleman and Payton Thorne, the Michigan State quarterback at the time, which led to both players transferring out. And midway through the season, the writing on the wall appeared to be a real indicator as Michigan State Head Coach, Mel Tucker, was fired during a season that resulted in a 4-8 record. But Coleman made the right move and avoided all of that and was instead part of an undefeated Florida State team that won the ACC Championship and had an excellent case to play in the College Football Playoffs. 

But while he went to Florida State to improve his draft stock, his raw statistics took a step back nearly across the board with similar target competition and arguably better quarterback play. He did at the very least improve his media attention and perception through the media as the WR1 for Florida State. A much different narrative than what likely would have been the case on a sinking Michigan State team.

Scouting Report

Positives

The first thing to mention here is Coleman’s size as he stands at 6’4” and 215 lbs per the Florida State website. He utilizes that frame and size just as you would expect as he provides a huge red zone target for his quarterback. Additionally, he can be considered a contested catch specialist with his size, body control, and reliable hands. There are plenty of highlight real catches in nearly every game of Coleman’s because even when he’s covered, he’s open.

He continues to play into that size at the line of scrimmage as he easily fights through press coverage and showcases a solid release. While he may not be an elite separator, with his frame, length, and reliable hands, he doesn’t have to separate as much as other receivers to still have a clean catch point. On top of all of that, he even showed a good amount of versatility in the slot to help provide mismatches against the defense. Finally, he is a good blocker for his teammates in space, utilizing that length and physicality to his advantage.

Negatives

A lot of the negatives to Coleman’s game are what one would expect from a prototypical big alpha wide receiver coming out of college. He’s big but doesn’t quite have the speed to consistently take advantage of release wins at the line of scrimmage or stretch the field vertically. And every once in a while, he relies a little too heavily on push-offs to gain a bit of separation within his routes instead of real nuance. 

He’s still pretty raw as a route runner past the line of scrimmage and occasionally lets up halfway through a route. His breaks could be crisper and he lacks those fluid hips for the quick breaks to throw the defender off. Finally, his yards after the catch are very average, a get what’s in front of you kind of guy.

Pre Draft Analysis

Expected Draft Capital- Round 3

Landing Spots

The Buffalo Bills stand out as an option here as Gabe Davis moved on, allowing Coleman to be a perfect plug-and-play replacement for Davis’ skill set for a fraction of the cost. They can re-roll the dice and see if there is untapped potential behind Coleman that can exceed what Davis provides, plus Diggs just turned 30 this past season. Another plug-and-play type scenario might be in Dallas where they could slot Coleman into the role they had hoped Gallup would develop into. Dallas released Gallup this offseason, allowing them too to re-roll the dice on Coleman and see if he lives up to his potential and develops into more than what Gallup is today.

Post Draft Analysis

Buffalo Bills – Round 2, Pick 1

Landing Spot

After moving back twice, once to let the Kansas City Chiefs lock up Xavier Worthy and again to let the Carolina Panthers get into the first round to take Xavier Legette, the Buffalo Bills finally selected a wide receiver with the first pick in the second round. And they take the big-bodied highlight reel wide receiver, Keon Coleman. The Bills have a clear need at wide receiver as they traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and let Gabe Davis leave in free agency to join the Jacksonville Jaguars. Keon Coleman immediately walks in as potentially one of the most talented wide receivers on the roster with the room consisting of Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, and Mack Hollins. Not a single 1,000-yard receiver.

Fantasy Impact

There is a clear path for Keon Coleman to be Josh Allen’s top wide receiver target. There will be a clear battle with Dalton Kincaid and James Cook for targets, but Coleman has a real case as the most talented wide receiver on this roster despite his flaws as a prospect. But he got great draft capital and a great landing spot to match which should boost him up draft boards. The opportunity is there for Keon to bloom early in this offense.

For Redraft, the upside swing is there, but it seems like there is also a pretty low floor as there are still concerns with Coleman’s profile for him to improve upon this offseason. He should be force-fed targets this season and if he’s not, there should be legitimate red flags raised about his development. In Dynasty leagues, he’s generally going at the top of the second round just like he did in the NFL Draft. He’s a high-ceiling and low-floor type of player that makes sense to take a swing on at his ADP as he’s tied to a stable franchise quarterback with limited target competition early in his career.

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