Welcome to the Week 10 of Trust or Bust. Just when we thought the NFL season couldn’t possibly get any weirder, here comes Week 9 to remind us that things, in fact, can get weirder! Who would’ve thought the Broncos would be the ones to beat the Dallas Cowboys after trading away their best player. On a week where we saw third-string quarterback Josh Johnson finish as the QB4, fifth-string wide receiver Malik Turner led the Cowboys in receiving and had a WR1 week, and the Chargers have all three of their tight ends finish as TE1s. That should remind everyone that nothing is predictable in the NFL. Trust me. I know.
OK, let’s get started, but first! Before we move forward, I’d like to remind the readers what exactly this article is intended for.
Every week I select players inside the FantasyPros Consensus Top 12 that I think will finish outside the top 12 and players outside the top 12 that I like more.
This is NOT a ‘start/sit’ article per se. This is more or less how I feel about a player, why I feel that way, suggesting what I would do, what to expect, and who I like more.
I know when offering advice and analysis, accuracy and accountability are important. Not just to you guys but to me as well. Every week I like to keep track and share my previous week’s picks that I got right and wrong.
Accountability Report
QB Justin Herbert (LAC)
Week 9 Ranking 7th
Prediction- Outside
Week 9 Ranking 2nd
Did I mention nothing is predictable in the NFL already? I did? Ok. Well, that’s one of the few things I know. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles defense got me with the ‘Philly special’. When your hair is as fabulous as Justin Herbert’s, you’ve always got a chance.
RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)
Week 9 Ranking 12th
Prediction- Outside
Week 9 Finish 7th
The 2021 fantasy MVP does it again. Week after week, Patterson continues to prove all the doubters wrong in a variety of ways. Patterson is a fantasy cheat code. If you got him, you’ve got to be feeling pretty good.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC)
Week 9 Ranking 11th
Prediction- Outside
Week 9 Ranking 3rd
Even after his big Week 9 performance Allen still sits in WR3 territory. I predict that will change now that Mike Williams has cooled off after his hot start. If you’re in need of wide receiver help, target Allen in a trade. He has a top 20 schedule moving forward.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL)
Week 9 Ranking 3rd
Prediction- Outside
Week 9 Finish 19th
Yes, finally, I got one right! What’s weird is I felt the least confident in this pick. Low and behold, it’s the only one I got right. Funny how things work out.
This week was ROUGH. We don’t have to run the numbers, do we? Come on, let’s skip it. Ok. Fine! Let’s run the numbers for Week 9.
Week 8 Results- 1 for 4 25%
Correct
18
Wrong
18
Week 9 Inside/ Outside Picks
QB Russell Wilson (SEA)
@GB
Current Ranking 28th
AVG Points per Game 19.9
Week 10 ranking 12th
Over the last four weeks, the Packers defense has been downright DOMINANT versus quarterbacks allowing less than fourteen points per game. In two of those games, they played Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Quarterbacks are not immunized to bad performances against the Packers’ secondary.
Who I like More
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
v DET
Week 10 ranking 18th
Look, Big Ben is not the quarterback he once was and it’s showing in 2021. If ever there were a time for Roethlisberger to turn back the clock, it’s Week 10 versus a Detroit Lions defense giving up twenty points per game. Let’s just hope Big Ben’s kneecaps are safe from Dan Campbell’s grasp.
RB D'Andre Swift (DET)
@PIT
Current Ranking 9th
AVG Points per Game 18.2
Week 10 ranking 10th
Ok, I’m really not trying to pick on the Lions. I promise. This matchup screams blowout. Even though Swift has been fantastic, the Lions haven’t won a single game. Pittsburgh is currently on a four-game win streak and with the AFC North up for grabs, the Steelers will use this matchup as a statement game for the rest of their division. Did I mention the Steelers defense hasn’t given up a single RB1 performance all year? Keep that in mind
Who I like More
RB Melvin Gordon (DEN)
v PHI
Week 10 ranking 9th
Javonte Williams might be all the rage in dynasty circles, but Gordon has been the better and more consistent fantasy player. With four straight double-digit scoring performances in a row, Gordon now gets to face a bottom five Eagles defense that allows close to thirty points per game to running backs.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN)
@LAC
Current Ranking 15th
AVG Points per Game 16.6
Week 10 ranking 9th
I know what you’re thinking, “Paul, how on earth is Justin Jefferson on this list?” Well, for one the Chargers defense is top 10 in every passing category over the last month and they’ve only given up ONE WR1 performance all year. Any more questions?
Who I like More
WR Amari Cooper (DAL)
v ATL
Week 10 ranking 17th
The Atlanta Falcons have taken the world by storm. While Cordarrelle Patterson has been the star of the show Atlanta’s defense has been key to their success. That being said, the Falcons have given up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers. Now, they get to face the Dallas Cowboys fresh off an embarrassing loss, on the road, against their old defensive coordinator. Wheels up for Amari!
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI)
@DEN
Current Ranking 12th
AVG Points per Game 10.1
Week 10 ranking 8th
Finally! After three weeks we’ve been able to see what Goedert can do without Zach Ertz around and he hasn’t disappointed, he also hasn’t taken the world by storm either. In the three games without Ertz, Goedert is averaging close to eleven points per game. Now he faces a Broncos team fresh off their biggest win of the season and a defense that hasn’t allowed a single touchdown to tight ends all year.
Who I like More
TE Noah Fant
v PHI
Week 9 ranking 15th
Noah Fant started the season off strong, and outside his twenty-four-point performance in Week 7, he’s been a bit of a disappointment. Even then Fant, after missing Week 9, is still the TE9 on the season. I’ve mentioned both the Eagles and Broncos a couple of times already. But, when your starting tight end faces a defense that allows the most points to tight ends, that’s worth mentioning.
That’s gonna do it for this week’s piece. I hope you found the info useful and actionable.
Thank you for reading. Just a reminder, my fantasy podcast: The ATB Fantasy Show records a new episode every Thursday. You can find the podcast on most major platforms, including Spotify and Apple Music. Here’s a link to the most recent episode.
If you use the hashtag #AskATB or send us a DM, we’ll be sure to answer any and all of your fantasy questions.
If you’re a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, I host a Dallas Cowboys themed podcast and you can find that on most major streaming platforms as well. Here is a link to the most recent episode
There you have it! Any questions, or want some more specific help for your league on who to drop, just reach out. Reach out on social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. And checkout out rankings for each Week.
Image Credit: Matthew Emmons – USA TODAY Sports
