I missed you guys last week, but I hope everyone who reads this article regularly won their real life and fantasy weeks, and to those who don’t read this article regularly, may you stub your toe everyday for a week straight and lose your matchups by .1 of a point for the remainder of the season. In all seriousness, I do apologize for not helping you guys last week. If you recall, I wrote about the importance of trading and the waiver wire giving you an advantage over your leaguemates that can be the difference in winning your week and the championship. Oddly enough, one advantage I haven’t written about, but one that might give you the biggest advantage of them all week to week and especially in the playoffs is…..lineup decisions! If you’ve been playing fantasy for a while there’s a saying “Always start your studs!” and “don’t get cute”. Now, I agree with these thoughts and can see both sides. I’ve also been on the wrong end of both of these. Of course, there are some players you just don’t sit, regardless of matchup. But, there are also players who we label “boom or bust” that when we start they get you 4 points and lose your matchup and when they’re on your bench they get you 30. Knowing when to start those guys can be tricky, but when you do your research and understand matchups, those “risks” become less about risk and more about your confidence and self-belief in your hard work. Fantasy isn’t easy and depending on the format, league volume, and your desire to win, the fantasy season is similar to having a second job. It’s always easier when you have a good team around you or resources you can use to help you and do the hard work for you. Most of, if not all of, my heartbreaking losses have come via a bad lineup decision or not taking that chance on the boom or bust player who I believed could win me my week, but didn’t have the stomach to risk it or I fell victim to groupthink and didn’t trust my gut. I say all that to say, lineup decisions get overlooked, and start/sit advice might not be as appealing or thought of as helpful like it once was. But, as always this article is meant to help make your lineup decisions easier and give you an edge over your leaguemates.
*I wrote this on Thursday before the Thursday Night game. After combing over my lineups, something told me to sit Cedrick Tillman and flex Jaylen Warren in his place. After doing the research, I STILL went against my gut and hard work and started Tillman anyway. Isn’t that ironic?*
And now, this your Week 12 Trust or BUST picks of the week!
*Just a reminder these rankings are used from the FantasyPros site and they are full PPR*
Inside/ Outside Picks
QB Jayden Daniels (WAS)
Current Ranking 3rd
This has nothing to do with the Dallas Cowboys defense and everything to do with Jayden Daniels. Rumor has it his rib injury is more serious than we know and his play lately confirms that thought. Daniels mobility was a big factor when drafting him and early in the season, fantasy gamers were rewarded with 4 rushing touchdowns in the first 4 weeks of the season. Unfortunately, week 4 was the last time Daniels scored a rushing touchdown and over the last 3 weeks he has yet to rush for more than 40 yards. Factor in the injury and matchup with a division rival where weird things tend to happen and Daniels finishing inside the top 5 is closer to BS than bullish.
Who I like More
QB Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
Week ranking 17th
Since his return to the Dolphins lineup in Week 8, Tua is tied for 4th in passing TDs (7) 12th in passing yards, and he’s averaging over 16 PPG. This week Tua and the Dolphins take on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots in what has the makings of a shoot out. With a projected point total of 46 (6th highest) I like Tua to have his second consecutive top 12 finish in Week 12.
RB Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
Current Ranking 7th
A few weeks ago I wrote why I didn’t like Kenneth Walker because he only had one top 12 week when he didn’t score a touchdown. Fast forward to today and in 38 games played, Kenneth Walker only has one top 12 finish when he doesn’t score a touchdown. Guess what, the Arizona Cardinals defense doesn’t do….they don’t allow running backs to score touchdowns. In 10 games played, they’ve allowed just 9 total touchdowns to running backs.
Who I like More
RB Kareem Hunt (KC)
Week ranking 19th
I know everyone is excited for the return of Isiah Pacheco but until he comes back, Hunt is the guy! Since Hunt took over the lead role, he is the RB18, scored 10 points or less just twice, he’s averaging 16 PPG, and he’s 6th in red zone touches. After a disappointing outing in Week 11, Hunt and the Chiefs offense are in for a bounce back game against the league’s worst run defense.
WR Nico Collins (HOU)
Current Ranking 5th
It was nice to have Nico back in our lineups last week, it would’ve been a lot cooler if his 70 yard touchdown had counted, but I digress. In what was supposed to be a “cake” matchup for Stroud and the Texans, the passing game left a lot to be desired. This week’s matchup versus the top 5 Titans defense isn’t nearly as easy. In 11 weeks not a single wide receiver has had a top 12 finish when playing the Titans defense.
Who I like More
WR Mike Evans (TB)
Week Ranking 16th
Coming back after missing the last 3 weeks, Mike Evans will be a breath of fresh air for Baker Mayfield and a Buccaneers offense that is in desperate need of some wide receivers. With the Giants season all but over and on the brink of implosion after sitting Daniel Jones and upsetting the locker room. I think Daboll may have lost the room with this move and the Giants could just mail it in from here on out.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA)
Current Ranking 9th
Jonnu has been good this season, but when you take a step back and look at his week to week numbers, he hasn’t been great. Of course we love the situation he’s in with Miami, but the Miami offense isn’t what it was in 2023 and even as the TE8 this season Jonnu only has 4 games where he’s scored 11 or more fantasy points and even after scoring two touchdowns last week, he only has 3 total this season. I like the matchup versus New England, but they’re allowing less than 50 yards per game to tight ends this season. Like most tight ends this year, if you start Jonnu, you’re praying he scores a touchdown.
Who I like More
TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR)
Week Ranking 18th
If you look in the fantasy dictionary and look up hail mary play, you’d find a picture of Ja’Tavion Sanders. No disrespect to Sanders, who for the most part has been solid in his rookie season and since Week 6 he’s scored 6 or more points in every game but one and he’s had 3 games with 50 or more receiving yards. I know the matchup versus the Chiefs looks tough on paper, but when facing tight ends the Chiefs defense is bottom 5 against tight ends and they’ve allowed the most receiving yards and second most receptions. Just close your eyes and hit submit when plugging Sanders into your lineups this week.
That’s gonna do it for this week’s piece. I hope you found the info useful and actionable. For all my new readers, I am an avid Dallas Cowboys fan. If you like the Cowboys or just enjoy football in general, I know you’d enjoy this podcast.
There you have it! Any questions, or want some more specific help for your league on who to drop, just reach out. Reach out on social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. And checkout out rankings for each Week.
