Folks, I can’t believe it’s here….Championship week. The most unpredictable fantasy and NFL season I can remember is coming to an end. It was only a year ago when having a meaningful playoff game in Week 17 was frowned upon, fast forward to today and you’re happy as can be if your team is playing this week. If this season has taught me anything; it’s to go with the flow and prepare for the unexpected. Some of us are playing for money. Some of us are playing for pride. Some of us are playing for next year. Whether it was a mid-season trade that put you over the top, or your team avoided major injuries and stayed healthy all year, or you got lucky like I did and our opponents made the wrong lineup decision while we made the right one; regardless of how you made it to the Championship Game, congratulations!
Every week I select players inside the FantasyPros Consensus Top 12 that I think will finish outside the top 12 and players outside the top 12 that I like more.
This is NOT a ‘start/sit’ article per se. This is more or less how I feel about a player, why I feel that way, suggesting what I would do, what to expect, and who I like more.
I know when offering advice and analysis, accuracy and accountability are important. Not just to you guys but to me as well. Every week I like to keep track and share my previous week’s picks that I got right and wrong.
QB Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Week 16 Ranking 8th
Week 16 Finish 14th
After a slow start, Hurts and the Eagles got going in the second half and got a much-needed victory to stay in the playoff hunt. I mentioned last week that Hurts’ upside relied heavily on his rushing ability and with two passing TDs and zero rushing touchdowns, that proved to be the case.
RB Alvin Kamara (NO)
Week 16 Ranking 4th
Week 16 Finish 35th
Wow, talk about a stinker! I didn’t know much about Ian Book the draft prospect and you can’t evaluate a player after one game. It’s safe to say Book and the Saints’ offense were in over their heads on Monday night.
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF)
Week 16 Ranking 10th
Week 16 Finish 10th
What seemed like a quiet week for receivers, turned out to be a consistent week for receivers. Of the twelve receivers who finished as WR1s, four of them scored less than twenty-two points and all but two scored a touchdown. Yes, this is my way of making myself feel better about getting this one wrong, thanks for asking.
TE Dawson Knox (BUF)
Week 16 Ranking 5th
Week 16 Finish 15th
I feel like I rarely get my tight-end predictions right. This one feels pretty good though and I’m not sure why, if we’re being honest. I did tell you, more like warn you, about the Patriots defense. In a week taken over by injuries and Covid-19 protocols, it’s unlikely you had many other options.
Another week, another accountability report. Let’s run the numbers
Week 16 Results- 3 for 4 75%
Week 17 Inside/ Outside Picks
There’s a chance that by the time you read this, a player or players might not be playing this week. I will do my best to update the players, when and if I can. Ladies, gentlemen, and future league champions. Here are my Week 17 ‘Trust, or BUST’ picks.
QB Kyler Murray (ARI)
Current Ranking 11th
AVG Points per Game 22.5
Week 17 ranking 11th
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had their way with Dallas last year on Monday Night Football. A week after losing Dak for the season and getting embarrassed at home in primetime, this has ‘Revenge game’ written all over it. After three straight losses, Kyler and the Cardinals’ offense find themselves in a slump. As if losing DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t enough to overcome, now Arizona faces the number one fantasy defense in the Dallas Cowboys.
Who I like More
QB Mac Jones (NE)
Week 16 ranking 20th
Week 17 and 18 have become the most important weeks of the season for Jones and Bill Belichik. The schedule is in their favor this week with a matchup versus middle-of-the-pack Jaguars defense allowing over seventeen points per game.
RB Joe Mixon (CIN)
Current Ranking 2nd
AVG Points per Game 18.2
Week 17 ranking 6th
Mixon makes the list for the first time this year and after a thirty-point performance, you’re not sitting him, obviously. The Bengals/Chiefs game will be highly favored by fantasy players, yet I see Mixon as no more than a mid to low RB2. Surprisingly enough, the Chiefs have allowed over six receptions per game to running backs the last four weeks. Unfortunately, running backs have only scored two total touchdowns in that span.
Who I like More
RB Javonte Williams (DEN)
Week 17 ranking 18th
Were you lucky enough to start or avoid Rex Burkhead last week? If you faced Burkhead, chances are you didn’t make it to the championship game. Why do I keep bringing up Rex Burkhead? Because last week after not scoring a touchdown or rushing for more than fifty yards all year, he rushed for over a hundred and forty yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers. Guess who Javonte Williams plays this week.
WR Keenan Allen (LAC)
Current Ranking 10th
AVG Points per Game 16.6
Week 17 ranking 11th
Another year, another WR1 season for Keenan Allen. When you’re tied to a quarterback like Justin Herbert it’s not often you have a bad week. With the Chargers having lost back-to-back games, Allen finds himself going up against a Denver defense that’s only allowed one WR1 performance in the last five weeks.
Who I like More
WR Odell Beckham (LAR)
Week 17 ranking 22nd
In his short time in Los Angeles, OBJ has shown the naysayers he still has something left in the tank. From weeks 12-16, Odell is the WR17 and has scored a touchdown in all but one game. It just so happens he faces a Baltimore Ravens defense that gives up, you guessed it, a lot of touchdowns.
TE George Kittle (SF)
Current Ranking 3rd
AVG Points per Game 15.6
Week 17 Ranking 2nd
Everyone is excited to see Trey Lance back in action this week, that includes the Houston Texans defense. If you’ve been playing fantasy for any amount of time, I’m sure you’re familiar with the term “trap game.” The Houston defense isn’t good at very much, the one thing they are good at…. creating turnovers. This game makes me nervous for Lance, Kittle, and the 49ers.
Who I like More
TE Cole Kmet (CHI)
Week 17 ranking 16th
Kmet has been one of the bright spots for the Bears’ offense this season. In his last four games, he has twenty-six targets. For the season he has more receptions than Dallas Goedert and more yards than Hunter Henry. In Week 17 he faces a Giants’ defense that’s allowed over fourteen points per game to tight ends the last two weeks.
That’s gonna do it for this week’s piece. I hope you found the info useful and actionable.
Thank you for reading. Just a reminder, my fantasy podcast: The ATB Fantasy Show records a new episode every Thursday. You can find the podcast on most major platforms, including Spotify and Apple Music. Here’s a link to the most recent episode.
If you use the hashtag #AskATB or send us a DM, we’ll be sure to answer any and all of your fantasy questions.
If you’re a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, I host a Dallas Cowboys themed podcast and you can find that on most major streaming platforms as well. Here is a link to the most recent episode
Image Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports