Welcome back to my trust or bust series, brought back for 2022, here we look at the Week 4 matchups.
What a wacky week in the NFL, can you say upset? Sorry Bills fans. It was a low-scoring week too with only two teams scoring thirty points or more. If you have Lamar Jackson as your quarterback, it feels pretty good, doesn’t it? And to think a wide receiver is leading the NFL in passing touchdowns. To all my fans across the pond, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars look like a team that will surprise people this year. Now if only Travis Etienne can start scoring fantasy points, all will be right in the world.
If you’re 3-0, congratulations! If you’re 0-3, it’s never too late….to blow it up and try again next year JK. All jokes aside there’s still plenty of football left and anything can happen. If you’re still reading this and haven’t skipped ahead to my Week 4 picks, thank you.
For those of you who are reading this for the first time, thank you. Let me tell you what this series is about and what its intentions are. (I promise it will have your daughter home before curfew). Every week I select players inside the FantasyPros Consensus Top 12 that I think will finish outside the top 12 and players outside the top 12 that I like more. All rankings are used with full PPR scoring in mind. This is NOT a ‘start/sit’ article per se. This is more or less how I feel about a player, why I feel that way, suggesting what I would do, what to expect, and who I like more. Here is where I would normally share my accountability report from the week prior, but because I’m a coward I didn’t try to predict anything for Week 1.
Accountability Report
QB Tom Brady (TB)
Week 3 Ranking 12th
Prediction- Bust
Week 3 Finish 20th
This game looked like it might turn into a shoot-out in the first half and Russell Gage did everything fantasy players have been waiting for him to do. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough as Brady and the Bucs couldn’t convert the two-point late in the game.
RB Javonte Williams (DEN)
Week 3 Ranking 12th
Prediction- Bust
Week 3 Finish 33rd
My lord, talk about a snoozer of a game. To be fair a defensive battle is nice to see now and again, but this was on another level. And to make matters worse, when Denver did finally get in the red zone, Melvin Gordon was the beneficiary.
WR Deebo Samuel (SF)
Week 3 Ranking 10th
Prediction- Bust
Week 3 Finish 39th
I’m not sure what was worse, the ‘butt punt’, Jimmy G stepping out of the end zone for a safety, or his overall performance on Sunday night. For everyone who thinks Jimmy is better for the offense than Trey Lance, is this your king?
TE Gerald Everett (LAR)
Week 3 Ranking 10th
Prediction- Bust
Week 3 Finish 33rd
Talk about bad luck. Just when we thought the Chargers have finally avoided the injury bug, it turns out the injury bug was just late this year. On the bright side, Everett did have six targets this week. And call me crazy but I think Jacksonville’s defense might be good this year. They’re allowing less than thirteen points per game.
Nice week there then!
Week 3 Results- 4 for 4 100%
Correct
7
Wrong
1
Week 3 Inside/ Outside Picks
QB Kirk Cousins (MIN)
@NO
Current Ranking 14th
AVG Points per Game 16.4
Week 4 ranking 9th
Kirk is always underappreciated, regardless of how many times he ends the season as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback. Well, I hate to be “that guy” but I actually “don’t like that” (please tell me you got that reference) Cousins has to go up against a Saints defense that’s allowing only one touchdown per game to quarterbacks this season.
Who I like More
QB Geno Smith (SEA)
@DET
Week 4 ranking 19th
Everyone’s favorite sleeper team, thanks to ‘Hard Knocks’ the Detroit Lions, may have stolen our hearts (looking at you Rodrigo) but they are giving away fantasy points to quarterbacks. Opposing quarterbacks average more than twenty-three points per game against the Detroit defense.
RB Aaron Jones (GB)
v NE
Current Ranking 7th
AVG Points per Game 16.1
Week 4 ranking 8th
Fantasy can be funny sometimes. One would think that as the RB7, Jones must be lighting it up this year. Well, he is inside the top twelve in rushing yards, and top twenty in both runningback targets and receptions. Yet, outside of his week two explosion, he ranked outside the top twenty-four and top forty-eight in weeks one and three. This week he faces the Patriots’ top-five run defense and they’ve yet to give up a touchdown to a runningback.
Who I like More
RB Khalil Herbert (CHI)
@NYG
Week 4 ranking 16th
Week 4’s waiver wire darling made quite the impression after taking over for David Montgomery last week. Week 3 wasn’t the first time Herbert has had success as the starter, last year Herbert scored over fifteen points in back-to-back games, and with a Giant’s defense, that’s given up the third most rushing yards to running backs. The stars will align again for Herbert and the Bears’ rushing attack.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
v SEA
Current Ranking 3rd
AVG Points per Game 24.4
Week 4 ranking 7th
After facing Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel, and Drake London in three games, the Seahawks defense only allowed one top twenty-four finish! That’s not surprising for a defense that’s given up the fourth least passing yards on the season. And to make matters worse the ‘Sun God’ is nursing an ankle injury.
AT THE TIME OF WRITING THERE WAS A CHANCE ST. BROWN WOULD PLAY
Who I like More
WR Amari Cooper (CLE)
@ATL
Week 4 ranking 20th
Amari Cooper’s revenge tour has been a sight to see. First, he gets traded for a fifth-round pick to a team where receivers’ careers go to die, then he loses his starting quarterback before playing a snap with him. Only to start the season as a WR1! The Browns’ offense is producing and with a bottom-five Falcons pass defense, Amari is on his way to his third straight game of hundred yards receiving.
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI)
v JAX
Current Ranking 6th
AVG Points per Game 11.3
Week 4 ranking 6th
I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, Jacksonville’s defense is good y’all! And, it’s downright dominant against tight ends. Tight ends average a measly thirty-one yards per game against the Jaguars’ secondary and no tight end has scored a touchdown. I know this will be the best offense Jacksonville has faced this season, but those numbers deserve respect.
Who I like More
TE Robert Tonyan (GB)
v NE
Week 4 ranking 17th
With Mac Jones not playing this week, and Aaron Rodgers still looking for his Davante Adams replacement, this game doesn’t have the makings of your typical shoot-out. Even then Tonyan has found a way to carve out a role in the Green Bay offense and it wasn’t that long ago that ‘Big Bob’ had a top-five season. Add the fact that the Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this year and things are looking up for Tonyan and the Packers.
That’s gonna do it for this week’s piece. I hope you found the info useful and actionable.
Thank you for reading. Just a reminder, my fantasy podcast: The ATB Fantasy Show records a new episode every Thursday. You can find the podcast on most major platforms, including Spotify and Apple Music. Here’s a link to the most recent episode.
If you use the hashtag #AskATB or send us a DM, we’ll be sure to answer any and all of your fantasy questions.
There you have it! Any questions, or want some more specific help for your league on who to drop, just reach out. Reach out on social media, you can find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Or jump into our Discord server. And checkout out rankings for each Week.
Image Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports
