As we exit Week 12 of the 2022 season, we start to cast an eye on the next season- so why not start with a rookie rundown? Often players can see a significant year-to-year change in value based on their performance in the fantasy playoffs. As we have seen last season with Gabe Davis, all it takes is one well-timed blow-up game to jump them up five rounds in the following year’s fantasy drafts.
With that in mind, let’s take a second to look at a few of the rookies that I think could be trending up or trending down once the fantasy playoffs conclude.
Week 12 2022 Rookie Rundown – QB
Trending UP- Desmond Ridder (Atlanta Falcons) Ridder has yet to see his chance to start due to the Falcons being in the playoff hunt in a brutal NFC South. That quest for a playoff berth will come to an end in the coming weeks and the Falcons will be forced to see what they have in their rookie quarterback.
Ridder has a rookie ADP of 30.16 and an overall rank of 169. If Ridder does get his chance to play, he sees a favorable fantasy playoff schedule facing two below-average defenses (Saints 21st, Ravens 19th) and one terrible defense (Cardinals 27th). Ridder’s rushing upside combined with these matchups could allow him to start fast and see a solid bump in value going into the offseason.
Trending DOWN- Malik Willis (Tennessee Titans) Willis has seen his chance to start and while he possesses great potential he clearly needs more time to mature and grow.
Starter Ryan Tannehill has struggled with injury and should Willis be called to play again during the fantasy playoffs he would be greeted by the Texans who are third against quarterbacks and the Cowboys who are fifth against quarterbacks.
Whether Willis plays again this season of simply goes into the offseason resting on the production he has already banked this season, he is unlikely to see his value go anywhere but down as we see a new crop of rookie quarterbacks enter the league. Willis is currently available on most waiver wires at the moment. Look for him to hit waiver wires in a portion of dynasty leagues even if they are superflex.
Week 12 2022 Rookie Rundown – RB
Trending UP- Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs) Pacheco has slowly taken over the lead in the Chiefs backfield and now with Clyde Edwards Helaire going to the injured reserve as we get set to enter the fantasy playoffs it could be Pacheco breakout season. Should Pacheco be given a bell-cow role in this offense he would face two bottom-six defenses in Carolina and Las Vegas.
Pacheco is a player who has a chance to see his value increase more than any other rookie. There could be a late-season explosion reminiscent of rookie year Jonathan Taylor. Pacheco sits narrowly inside the top 100 in overall ADP coming in at 94th overall. He should find himself firmly in the running back dead zone that was previously occupied by Helaire.
Trending DOWN- Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons) Allgeier has proven to be a useful flex player for managers this season despite not being overly efficient of productive.
Allgeier has seen his role decrease as of late with the return of Cordarrelle Patterson and with the Falcons facing top 10 rush defenses in the fantasy playoffs (Ravens and Saints) Tyler could see his stock plummet. He is destined to return back to where he was in value during rookie draft season, especially if the Falcons make the change to Desmond Ridder at some point and this offense goes further downhill. Allgeier currently sits 122nd overall in ADP and will likely see himself drop into the undrafted range for 2023 drafts.
Week 12 2022 Rookie Rundown – WR
Trending UP- Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) Wilson has seen his ups and downs in his rookie season and another up could be in store for the fantasy playoffs.
The Jets are making a quarterback change to Mike White and with their cupcake matchups against the Lions and Jaguars Wilson could be in for an offensive explosion that will send his stock soaring to end the year. Wilson currently sits in the WR3 range in most fantasy leagues and this playoff season should firmly plant him in the low-end WR2 range going into 2023.
Trending DOWN- Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions) Williams is about to see a big jump in value but I believe it will be followed by a steep drop.
Williams hasn’t played this season due to injury but has been designated to return from the injured reserve. Williams has great potential and will one day be an elite receiver but most rookie receivers don’t hit right off the bat. As we’ve seen from receivers like Chris Godwin, it can often take time to get up to full speed once returning.
After the excitement peaks and Jameson returns he will ultimately start slow especially when combined with the Lions tough playoff matchups. There will be a window to buy Jameson Williams, this is not that window. Wait until managers panic when he starts off slow and then scoop him up in preparation for next season.
Week 12 2022 Rookie Rundown – TE
Trending UP- Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) McBride is about to see his chance in the Cardinals offense as Zach Ertz is going to miss significant time and the team has very little to play for.
McBride has been forgotten this season as he has done very little, but with McBride getting the chance to be the Cardinals top tight end he should see his time to shine against three bottom-half defenses come fantasy playoff time. Trey McBride sits 116th overall in ADP and could see himself jump up into the ranks of the top 10 tight ends come 2023 draft season.
Trending DOWN- Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens) has seen his opportunities and has produced well when given the chance but Mark Andrews appears to be healthy now and his role could once again be limited.
The window to sell high is almost closed and his value will drop back down to that of backup tight end once the playoffs get here and he squares off against some good defenses. Likely currently sits as 152 in overall ADP but will likely go undrafted in most leagues once again in 2023. If you roster Likely now in dynasty, try and sell him to a tight end-needy team that believes he could still be productive even with Andrews in the lineup. The little value he has built up will vanish quickly come the start of next season when Bateman is back from the injured reserve.
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Image Credit: Ken Blaze – USA TODAY Sports
