So, after some feedback from you guys, I’m again changing the format of my Week 12 dynasty buy and sell article. From now until the end of the season, I am going to look at players that could see a huge shift in value this offseason.
If you can make moves on these players before the market adjusts, you can reap the rewards now. Heading into this offseason there is going to be more player movement than ever before. This offseason we could see even more moves.
The decrease in cap space means a lot of Free agents that would normally be re-signed or tagged will hit the open market. You also have a few teams in absolute cap hell (looking at you Saints and Eagles) who will have to make some very tough roster decisions.
There are also a number of great rookie options that have declared/ are expected to declare. The offseason sees market value sky-rocket and fall as fast, with the smallest news break.
A Player who could see a change from an incoming Rookie upgrade:
Joe Mixon
Honestly, I’m not the biggest Mixon fan. I didn’t buy into people who were suggesting he was a top 10 Dynasty RB at the beginning of the season. I worried about his pass game usage and his TD upside. So far this year he has seen a 10.9% target share and has a TD rate of 2.5%. For fantasy, those two numbers are hugely worrying. Receptions and TD’s are hugely important when it comes to RB fantasy production.
So why should what is changing heading into 2021? Well, Joe Burrow suffered a horrific knee injury on Sunday ruling him out for the season. This injury means the Bengals are almost nailed to have a top 3 pick in this seasons draft.
With Joe Burrow solidifying his spot as the Franchise QB, this means the team can look elsewhere. They could (and should) look to grab a few pieces to solidify their terrible offensive line.
This could be huge for Joe Mixon. He recently signed an extension with the Bengals meaning he is their featured back for at least 2021 but also realistically 2022 as well.
He has produced well this year and is the RB11 in fantasy points per game. However, he has done all of this whilst averaging a pathetic 1.9 yards before contact. If the Bengals can upgrade the offensive line and put Mixon in a better position to succeed he could possibly perform as a top 10 back in both 2021 and 2022.
His current price is around a mid-first and a mid 2nd. I think that’s about right, so if I could acquire him any cheaper I would definitely be interested.
A smart move is to wait until the season is over. Mixon may well be shut down for the season with the Bengals season done after the Burrow Injury.
This would mean Mixon is well down the list of 2020 season leaders. Due to playing a reduced number of games, this could mean he is available even cheaper. He could be a fantastic buy if you’re hoping to compete in 2021.
Free Agent who could be in a new situation:
Allen Robinson
I’ve talked about Allen Robinson several times this season so won’t go into too much detail here. But he is a free agent at the end of the season. The Bears are projected to have $2.4m in cap space before they sign their rookie class or make any moves.
Realistically once they’ve cut the likes of Jimmy Graham and signed their draft class they will have in the $10m range. Whilst they could resign Robinson and structure his contract to fit, it’s hard to see them paying him big money without a QB in place.
So I fully expect Robinson to look elsewhere and find a situation where he can catch passes from a competent QB. If you haven’t go and have a look at the list of QBs he’s caught passes from:
Could you imagine Robinson in New England with Cam or New York catching passes from Trevor Lawrence? To be honest he would see a QB upgrade with any other team!
If you jump early and take the gamble that he lands in an improved situation you can enjoy it when he sees the value jump of being on a new team.
Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake looked incredible in 2019 and I have been nothing but disappointed in 2020. He has been less explosive in the open field and hasn’t seen the pass game usage that was so critical to his 2019 success. He has only seen a 5.2% target share this year after being over 10% in every game last year!
Some may view his current situation as a free agent and say he’ll see a better opportunity with a new team next year. My question to that would be where is he going to end up?
There are better free agents available (Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, even Leonard Fournette) some exciting rookies (Harris and Etienne), and not too many landing spots for teams willing to pay an RB.
I expect Drake to sign someone as no more than a 50/50 back and see less volume than he has seen this year. If you can get a 1st for Drake then I would snap the owner’s hand off.
If you can wait until the offseason when he may see the free agent bump you may be able to gain a little more value. But I would be anxious he sits out in Free Agency for a while and takes an under-market deal in a split backfield.
Unexpected Cut Candidates:
Zach Ertz
As mentioned earlier the Eagles are in absolute cap hell in 2021. They’re currently projected to be $63.5m over the cap. Whilst they have about $40m savings in some obvious cuts, bye-bye Alshon Jeffery, they will have to make some really tough calls. Enter Zach Ertz.
He made it clear earlier in the season that he wants a new contract and the Eagles were just not able to accommodate. They already have another top tier TE in Dallas Goedert too. A player that they will have to pay in 2022, and the Eagles could save $4.7m by moving on from Ertz at the end of the season. Normally that’s not enough of a saving to warrant the move but given their dire cap, it may be a case of needs must.
TE Free Agent Moves
So TE free agents are really tough to project. It is not like a wide receiver where you can easily project a role in a new offense. TE’s are heavily scheme reliant due to the fact they are more of a dual role.
There is not a huge amount of top tier TE’s that have moved teams whilst in their prime (or near to prime) a couple of recent examples are:
- Austin Hooper Atlanta (15.2 PPG) to Cleveland (7.1 PPG)
- Jimmy Graham New Orleans (14.7 PPG) to Seattle (11.2 PPG)
- Jimmy Graham Seattle (16.7 PPG) to Green Bay (8.4 PPG)
I appreciate I have just picked two players. But you can see that each had a significant drop in their production in their new landing spot.
Looking specifically at Ertz you can fully understand why he would see a drop in production. Moving from a TE orientated system in Philadelphia to a new team (that likely won’t utilize the position as much).
I wouldn’t sell yet on Ertz though. His price is currently rock bottom after a poor start and an injury. He should be back from injury this week, and if he has a decent stretch, the early offseason could be a good time to sell. I would be looking for a mid 2nd round pick if I was looking to move him this offseason.
Players who could see an increase in opportunity after a player leaves
AJ Dillon
In the pre-season, there was a lot of hype around Dillon. A lot of that came off the back of a viral picture of his huge legs. But he was being projected as somebody who would be fantasy relevant this season.
So far he has seen a total of 24 touches and not even hit the radar of many fantasy players. However, when he was drafted I was projecting AJ Dillon not as a 2020 startable option but as someone who could carve out a role from 2021 and beyond.
The Packers drafted Dillon with a view to moving towards a more physical play style. However, the real reason he was drafted was that both Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones are free agents at the end of this season. Dillon would be a nice complement to either back and enables the Packers greater leverage in any potential negotiation.
Now Dillon’s value will likely be reduced, after a rookie year with next to no production. In rookie drafts this offseason his ADP was 2.10 and his current value is around a 3rd. You may need to move quickly on this one, because as soon as either Jones or Williams leave Green Bay Dillon’s value will skyrocket.
As discussed I will be focusing on a few different players over the next few weeks within the same categories. If you have a specific question on a player, let me know and I’ll dig into it for you.
If you’re interested in hearing me talk more about Buys/Sells and dynasty football in general please check out the Dynasty Island Podcast available on all good podcast apps (Apple Podcasts, Spotify and others)
So that’s it for the Week 12 edition of dynasty buy and sell. Remember, you can find all of our dynasty articles here. As well as keeping up with all of our work is posted across our social media channels. We are on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Steve Flynn – USA TODAY Sports
