Last week, the format of my dynasty buy and sell article was well received so I’m keeping it for Week 13.
A Player who could see a change from an incoming Rookie upgrade:
Terry McLaurin
A lot of talks looking ahead to the 2021 draft has centred around the potential of the QB class. It is set to potentially be one of the best from a fantasy perspective for a number of years. There could be as many as 5 first-round QBs taken in May.
Most of these talks has been centred around the Jets and the Jaguars as they battle it out for the top pick. Which is expected to be the Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes. However, an under the radar franchise to watch will be the Washington Football Team.
Issues at Quarterback
After moving on from the Dwayne Haskins experiment during the season Washington seems to have stabilized the franchise. However, despite Ron Rivera’s leadership, they’re still desperate for a franchise QB. Enter the 2021 class where they could find themselves drafting a Trey Lance, Zach Wilson or Kyle Trask.
Whoever Washington ends up taking (and I’m convinced they will draft someone early) it will be an upgrade over the combination of Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith.
So what does this all have to do with McLaurin? Well, he has been an absolute stud since he entered the NFL. With a finish as the WR29 in his rookie year, and this year he is currently the WR9! That’s even whilst catching passes from the revolving door at QB.
Improvements for Next Year
Not only will an upgrade in QB play improve the quality of targets McLaurin is seeing but it should improve the overall efficiency of the offense. Washington is currently 27th in points per drive. As I mentioned earlier McLaurin is the WR9 on the season. But he has done so only scoring 3 times. The only other receiver in the top 15 to have scored less than 4TDs is Robby Anderson.
So if the Washington offense can improve its overall efficiency it should improve the number of RedZone looks McLaurin receives, and therefore the number of TDs.
Despite only being in his Sophomore season, McLaurin is not young. He is currently 25 and that has helped keep his price low. At the moment he is currently available for a 1st and a 2nd. That price is significantly cheaper than the other top 10 receivers currently. If you get in early and buy him after the season, whilst there is still some uncertainty in the QB room, it could prove very useful come to the start of 2021.
Free Agent who could be in a new situation:
Corey Davis
I was and still am a huge Corey Davis believer. He has not turned into the player I had hoped he would be, when he was an early 1st round pick, but I still think he is currently undervalued because of his situation.
Trouble in Tennessee
Davis is the clear number two option on a bottom 5 passing volume offense. Tennesse is averaging just 30.5 pass attempts a game after averaging a measly 26.9 last year (lowest in the league). This low passing volume means there is just not as much opportunity to go around.
To put that into context, Dallas currently leads the league in pass attempts and Amari Cooper leads the team in target share. Cooper’s target share of 22.2% equates to 98 targets through 11 games (8.9 targets per game). Corey Davis may have only played in 9 games, but he has seen a 22.7% target share. However due to the reduced passing volume that equates to only 58 targets 6.4 per game.
Despite seeing a similar target share Davis is averaging 2.5 fewer targets per game, just based on the amount of passing attempts to go around. However, despite this low volume, Davis is producing this year averaging 13.5 points per game. That puts him as the WR30 in points per game on the season.
Next Season’s Situation
Davis will be a free agent after the season and it’s tough to see the Titans resigning him. Especially after declining his 5th-year option, and only having an estimated $10m in cap space next year.
I could absolutely see Corey Davis being next year’s Robby Anderson. A forgotten player who produced well in a bad situation who could flourish with a new team.
I don’t think he will ever turn out to be the top 12 fantasy receiver he was hoped of being when he was drafted. But I think he will outperform his price into next year. Despite being a WR3 on the season you can probably add Davis for an early 3rd.
Although it may be smart to wait until free agency when he becomes the forgotten man as a host of big-name WR free agents are signed. I’d feel comfortable paying a late 2nd in this year’s draft for a 25-year-old receiver that I believe has his best days ahead.
Unexpected Cut Candidates:
Jimmy Garoppolo
I talked earlier in the offseason about Garoppolo and how I felt this was his last season as a franchise QB in the league. Well, that opinion hasn’t changed. The 49ers can move on from Garoppolo after this season with a dead cap hit of just $2.8m (saving $23.6m). Given they are 2-3 this season without him, I am convinced they can find a better option that fits the team’s cap structure.
San Fransisco is actually in one of the better Cap situations in the league. They currently have $21m in space and only Trent Williams as a high priced free agent.
However, they could certainly spend that $24m better elsewhere. Last year we saw that there were more starting quarterbacks than spots available. That led to Jameis Winston signing to be a backup and Cam Newton only able to sign for a pittance in New England.
Well, this year we have possibly as many as five 1st round pick rookies adding into that pool. So would the 49ers be better drafting a Trask or Wilson and allowing Nick Mullens to be their bridge QB?
I honestly believe it is a move that would allow them to compete for a Superbowl and pay their plethora of young studs coming up for contracts (Warner, McGlinchey, Bosa etc.).
So if San Fransisco did move on where would Jimmy G go? Well although people will immediately link him to New England. But I just can’t see him walking into any franchise as a starting QB. That means his value in Superflex leagues could be about to plummet.
His current price is around an early 2nd (it was a 1st when I suggested selling him earlier in the year). I would absolutely love to have that early 2nd. This should be another incredibly deep class, and over a QB that I think will be riding the bench next year? It’s simple.
Players who could see an increase in opportunity after a player leaves
Dallas Goedert
Perhaps this one is a bit obvious. After talking through Zach Ertz possibly not being on the Eagles next year it makes perfect sense for me to talk up the player most likely to benefit.
Honestly, It’s not any more complicated than that Goedert has shown through his career to date. He is a TE1 despite being a clear third or fourth option in the offence.
If Ertz moves on it will allow Goedert to increase his snap share from the 70-80% when Ertz plays to the 100% he plays without Ertz. In the last two weeks without Ertz, Goedert has produced stat lines of 5-77-1 (18.7points) and 7-75-1 (20.5 points). Goedert taking over more of the Eagles offense is already baked into his current price. That price is currently a late first/early 2nd. However, I don’t believe people are counting on Ertz being out of the door.
I would be very happy paying a late 1st and maybe even a bit more. I currently have Goedert in my third tier of TE’s but if Ertz is out the door. He would immediately jump into the same tier as Hockenson, Fant, and Andrews.
Is there anyone you feel could see a significant change in value before the start of the 2021 season? Reach out and let me know and I’ll be back next week to discuss a few more.
If you’re interested in hearing me talk more about Buys/Sells and dynasty football in general please check out the Dynasty Island Podcast available on all good podcast apps (Apple Podcasts, Spotify and others)
So that’s it for the Week 13 edition of dynasty buy and sell. Remember, you can find all of our dynasty articles here. As well as keeping up with all of our work is posted across our social media channels. We are on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Jim Brown – USA TODAY Sports
