Here we are back with dynasty buy and sell for Week 14.
A Player who could see a change from an incoming Rookie upgrade:
Anyone who has read my work or follows me on Twitter knows I’ve been banging the drum of the Denzel Mims hype train for the past couple of months. He has flashed some incredible potential as a true outside X receiver. Possessing the physical build and athleticism to be a dominant receiver in the NFL.
Equally, the peripheral numbers have been there. He’s seen a 24.8% target share, is averaging 15.3 air yards per target as well as 3 RedZone targets. He should be a reliable fantasy option. However, as of yet, he hasn’t broken out.
Since starting his season in week 7, due to injury, Mims has been consistently averaging 8.9 points per game. Never scoring fewer than 6.2 but also never more than 10.7. It’s quite shocking that someone with Mims’ level of target share hasn’t produced. There are 24 players to see a target share greater than 23% in the league. Of those 24 players Mims is the only one to average fewer than 11 points per game. In fact, every player in those 24 is producing over 14 points per game except Mims, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry.
Lack of Production
So why isn’t Mims producing fantasy points despite seeing a strong target volume and air yards? It essentially comes down to the quality of targets. If you quickly look at the catch rates of those top 24 receivers they’re all catching over 60% of their targets except Mims who is down at 51%. That explains why he isn’t producing to the same level as his peers. He is seeing the target volume but he’s not turning those targets into receptions. So why is that?
Using catchable target rate Mims is only seeing a catchable ball on 55.9% of his targets. This means that almost half of his targets are deemed uncatchable. Taking this into account Mims has a true catch rate (given as the number of receptions per catchable targets) of 89.5%.
Change in QB
This brings me to the reason for Mims’ optimism. He is seeing the target volume. He is coming down with the ball when the pass is catchable, it’s just that a high percentage of his targets are uncatchable. Currently, the Jets look likely to go 0-16, and win the prized Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.
That should bring a sharp increase in the quality of play at QB. It is that reason why I have Mims as a strong buy candidate.
the jets should see a sharp increase in quality of play at the QB position. For this reason, I strongly advocate Mims as a huge buy candidate he is currently being priced around an early to mid 2nd and to be honest I’d be comfortable paying up to a late first for him. I think he is a top 36 dynasty WR despite being valued currently in the WR43 range per DLF adp.
Free Agent who could be in a new situation:
Before we start, I should say I am a colossal believer in his talent. I think to find a player who has produced a WR1 season as a sophomore in his age 21 season is incredibly rare. He is an incredibly physical receiver who thrives in a big slot role.
This offseason he will become a free agent, and all fingers are pointing to him leaving Pittsburgh. Mainly thanks to the emergence of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson. Entering the 2021 free agency market it is going to be a strange one.
The majority of teams are cash strapped and unlikely to be big spenders due to the reduced salary cap. There is also the potential of an unusually high number of top tier wide receivers hitting the open market due to said reduced cap. The likes of Allen Robinson, Will Fuller, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay could all find themselves searching for new homes.
So if he hits the open market he likely won’t be the only top-priced receiver available, but there are going to be plenty of suitors. I really like the idea of him landing in a spot like Jacksonville or Miami. Teams where they already have established outside receivers, and he can come in and be the true alpha from the slot.
Wherever he ends up he will see the free agency bump. It happens every year. Whenever a big name player either signs, or is traded, they immediately see a value bump. At that point that is your opportunity to sell.
Currently, the truth of the matter is he is an elite talent available at a reduced price. With the current price of a mid-2021 1st I still believe he is a good value.
Unexpected Cut/Trade Candidates:
This cut candidate could be reliant on what the Texans do with Will Fuller. The Texans are currently projected to be just over $12m over the cap this year. Brandin Cooks cap hit is exactly $12m with zero dead money if he is cut.
If the Texans want to look at bringing back Will Fuller, Cooks could be a very obvious cut candidate. It’s hard to project Cooks seeing a huge bump in value if he hits free agency. Whilst he has been a hugely productive fantasy performer throughout his career, the last few years have been marred by concussion issues. One more concussion could end his career and that makes him a difficult proposition to invest anything too rich in.
Cooks should currently fetch you a mid-2021 2nd and for that price, I just think there are a lot more desirable options out there. In fact, I would rather the pick in what should be another loaded draft class. With Will Fuller on the shelf currently due to his PED suspension, it is realistic that Cooks could see a really strong finish to the season. That could be a great time to then turn that into a selling opportunity. Early in the offseason would be the ideal time. You will not only be selling high but getting out before his value potentially plummets if he is then cut by the Texans.
Players who could see an increase in opportunity after a player leaves
I’ve mentioned a few times that the reduced cap has a few teams up against it this offseason. Another of those is the Chicago Bears who are projected to have $2m in cap space. Depending on what they do it could be unlikely that they find the space to bring back Allen Robinson. If that happens Mooney could realistically be entering camp expecting to see a huge bump in volume. So far this year Mooney has seen 71 targets (15.3% target share) and is currently averaging 8 points per game and stands as the WR59. If he could see that target share bump up towards the 20% mark he could easily produce WR4 or even WR3 numbers as early as next season. His current value is a mid 3rd. Realistically I think you may have to pay a bit more than that to get him but if you can acquire him as a throw into a deal then he could easily recoup value come free agency time if Robinson walks out the door.
Is there anyone you feel could see a significant change in value before the start of the 2021 season? Reach out and let me know and I’ll be back next week to discuss a few more.
If you’re interested in hearing me talk more about Buys/Sells and dynasty football in general please check out the Dynasty Island Podcast available on all good podcast apps (Apple Podcasts, Spotify and others)
So that’s it for the Week 14 edition of dynasty buy and sell. Remember, you can find all of our dynasty articles here. As well as keeping up with all of our work is posted across our social media channels. We are on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports