Here I am, back with the Week 15 edition of dynasty buy and sell. We are getting to the end of the season, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t turn your attention away. Especially in dynasty!
A Player who could see a change from an incoming Rookie upgrade:
At this point of the season, it’s gone under the radar that the Jaguars will likely hold the second pick in the draft. That should give the receivers a boost for next season, the leader being DJ Chark.
Few receivers have had a more rollercoaster value in a short three years than DJ Chark. Chark was a 2nd round pick of the Jaguars in 2018 Chark’s ADP was around the 150 mark in a 1QB startup. After his rookie year, it plummeted to over 200 after a 14-174-0 as a stat line. During the 2019 offseason it fell to a career-low in the 230’s.
The 2019 season began and Chark had a fantastic season posting 73-1008-8 on the way to an overall WR17 finish. At the end of the season, Charks ADP had rocketed up to 32.75 and a top 3 round pick. Since then Chark has seen a steady decline and currently sees his ADP sit at 58.75. This is due to a mix of Chark battling injuries and abysmal QB play through the year.
The Jags have cycled through a vast number of starting quarterbacks during Chark’s career. In the past three years, he has seen targets from 6 quarterbacks and the list isn’t pretty:
- Blake Bortles
- Cody Kessler
- Nick Foles
- Gardner Minshew
- Jake Luton
- Mike Glennon
So with the Jaguars likely to secure an elite passer in this year’s draft, you could see a real bump in the quality of targets. As well as step forward fro the whole offense.
If Chark were to see that bump it is very easy to see him establishing himself as a top 24 WR moving forward. His current price is around a late first and it’s certainly a move I’d be comfortable making. Chark is still young, only 24. He could easily return value on that investment this offseason when his value sees a bump with a new signal-caller in tow.
Free Agent who could be in a new situation:
Hunter Henry is a really interesting player both from an NFL and Fantasy perspective. An early second-round pick of the Chargers, Henry struggled with multiple injuries early in his career. But more importantly, flashed the potential of being an elite TE. This past offseason the Chargers weren’t confident that Henry was worthy of a long-term contract so they tagged him.
This season Henry has settled into TE purgatory from a fantasy perspective. He produces just enough points that you feel you can start him every week, and don’t go looking for an alternative option. Equally but you’re also always at a disadvantage because he doesn’t produce enough.
Heading into the 2021 offseason the Chargers are projected to have $33m in cap space. That should be enough space to re-sign Henry. However, the team also have Melvin Ingram, Mike Pouncey, Denzel Perryman, and Forest Lamp as free agents.
With the needs the team has, Henry could be the odd man out who finds himself searching for a new home this offseason. TE’s in Free agency really scare me. The position, outside of an elite 3 or 4, is so scheme reliant that a fantasy stud in one situation can become nothing more than a roster clogger on a new team (see Austin Hooper).
If Henry is headed to a new city I can’t see him seeing an increase in his value or production. The current value of Henry is around a high 2nd round pick. For me, that price is an easy sell given the uncertainty of his future landing spot.
I’ve talked about Aaron Jones a few times this season and to be honest, I’m none the wiser. If he resigns in Green Bay then I believe he will see a big spike in value, and likely be a top 6 RB for the next two years.
However, if the Packers decide to roll with their 2nd round pick from this year AJ Dillon, I’m seriously concerned about Jones and his value. There just aren’t any obvious home run landing spots. At least, ones that I see as likely franchises to pay Jones what he wants.
So if you’re confident the Packers will re-sign him then he is a screaming buy. Especially at his current price of a mid 1st and a mid 2nd. However, if you think he’s playing games in a different jersey next year, then it might be worth selling him sooner rather than later.
Unexpected Cut/Trade Candidates:
Perhaps this isn’t necessarily unexpected, but the Texans are currently projected to be $12m over the cap next year. That is prior to potentially resigning Will Fuller and their 2021 draft class.
Duke Johnson is due to make $5.15m next year but has $0 in dead cap if the Texans decide to move on from him. Given his level of production, and the cost of an RB in free agency, I can’t see the Texans retaining Duke into next season.
Throughout his career Johnson has shown huge potential in flashes. But has never been given the opportunity to be consistent. He has struggled when given the workload of a starting RB, outside of the lone 2017 season in which he finished as the overall RB11.
Given the landscape of the RB position, and the way they are valued in free agency, Johnson will again be a complimentary 3rd down back. Never being truly fantasy relevant again. So at this point I’d take whatever I can get for him. His current price is around a mid 3rd and I’d snatch someone’s hand off for that right now.
Players who could see an increase in opportunity after a player leaves
Coming out of High school as a 5-star recruit and the number 1 receiver in the country, Peoples-Jones was a huge recruit. However, after a disappointing college career, he fell to the 6th round in this recent draft.
I talked earlier in the season about how he could be a great end of the bench flyer. As there was the chance of injury to Beckham or Landry thrusting him into a starting role. That has absolutely been shown the last two weeks posting 2-92-1 and 3-74-0 in the last two weeks. In limited work, he has flashed as a fantastic deep threat who could produce given more of an opportunity
As things stand there is no clear path to an increase in opportunity next year and beyond with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry in post. However, in recent weeks there has been a lot made about the potential trade of Odell Beckham and Jarvis landry has a contract that can be cut very easily.
Now I don’t think either will be moved. I would certainly predict that both Beckham and Landry will be back. But, there is a chance one could be gone, freeing up a spot for Peoples-Jones to walk into a bigger role. With the current price of a 4th round pick, there are worse options to take a flyer on than Peoples-Jones.
Is there anyone you feel could see a significant change in value before the start of the 2021 season? Reach out and let me know and I’ll be back next week to discuss a few more.
Image Credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports