A very interesting week (and it’s not even over yet) but it brings us to our week 6 dynasty buy and sell candidates! Hopefully, you followed my advice in week 3. I said that you should have bought Chase Claypool before his unbelievable breakout this week! I also thought that Preston Williams was a buy before he returned to relevancy.
After being a buy low throughout the off-season despite what seemed like every analyst suggesting as such. Robinson had a slow start to the season with Trubisky playing QB.
However, with Trubisky being benched in favor of Foles, Robinson has truly broken out with stat lines of 10-123-1 (28.3pts), 7-101-1(23.1pts), and 10-90-0(19pts) and totalling 39 targets across those three weeks. In the Thursday night game vs the Bucs it seemed Nick Foles only had eyes for Robinson.
A top 12 finish for Robinson is very likely this season. Equally, being a free agent he could find himself in a situation with an even better QB next season. Let’s be honest, it’s hard to find a worse bunch than Trubisky and Foles.
With the current price of a 1st and a 2nd, you can go a lot worse than buying the guaranteed production of a target hog like Robinson. Furthermore, despite being in his 7th season in the league Robinson is still only 27. Realistically will be able to produce at least WR2 numbers for the next 3 or 4 seasons.
Off the back of the Austin Ekeler injury, a lot of advice was to go out and buy Joshua Kelley. One of my favorite moves in Fantasy is pivoting when there is a big Injury to a stud RB. That is targeting the 2nd RB rather than the one that everyone assumes will take over the role (see Damien Williams in 2018).
It doesn’t always work, but when it does you’ve secured a potential league winner at a lesser fee. This year that move is to acquire Justin Jackson rather than pay up for Kelley.
Throughout his career, Jackson has flashed potential as a solid complimentary runner. The issue is that just hasn’t been able to stay fit or has been buried on the depth chart behind Ekeler and Melvin Gordon.
Coming into the year that seemed to be the case again. The team drafted Kelley, and Jackson missing time thanks to a quad injury to start the season. However, after Ekeler injured his hamstring Jackson has carved out a decent role for himself to shine.
Jackson saw 15 carries for 71 yards but also saw 6 targets (18.8% target share) in the passing game. Some may see this as a quick flash in the pan and Ekeler will be returning soon. But given the seriousness of the Ekeler injury, I wouldn’t be shocked if he was out for the majority of the season- allowing Jackson to truly showcase his skills.
If he does flash as I expect, Jackson is also a free agent in 2022 and could easily find himself a more prominent role in free agency. At the cost of a future 3rd, I’m very comfortable taking the risk.
How can you buy low on Lamar Jackson? He was a consensus top 4 pick in Superflex startups all offseason. However, Lamar is currently the QB11 in points which is not what people expected coming off his MVP season.
In 2019 Lamar was averaging 11.6 carries per game which is down to 8.2 per game this season. He has seen reductions in his overall efficiency across the board. However, I believe the reason for his reduced production is injury.
I’m not convinced he is currently 100% fit; he has been on the injury report with a knee injury and I think this is why he hasn’t been producing on the ground. If you watch him he isn’t as electric in the open field. He certainly isn’t able to run away from everyone the way he did last year.
If the Lamar owner is panicking after his slow start, and isn’t thinking about his value over the next 5 years now may be your chance to pounce. His current price in Superflex leagues is multiple 1st round picks. So, if you can get him cheaper than that, you should do it.
Buy for the future
The Bengals offence at the moment isn’t exactly a dream for fantasy purposes. Their interior offensive line is pretty woeful, which is holding the team back.
Specifically, it is affecting the production of the likes of Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. However, with what I’ve seen from Burrow I honestly believe this is an offence you want to be buying pieces of moving forward.
With yet another AJ Green injury likely to sideline him for a while it will allow Tee Higgins to step into a larger role. Higgins has already flashed his potential in week 3 with his two TD performance against the Eagles.
A great rapport with Burrow, combined with the talent he has, Higgins feels poised for a breakout and the buying window may be closing soon. To date, Higgins has seen a 15% target share in the Bengals offense. But with AJ Green’s 17% likely to be on the sidelines for a while you could see Higgins approaching a 25%+ target share normally reserved for the truly elite receivers in the league.
His current price sits between a late 1st and early 2nd. My favorite move is trading a future 1st for Higgins and a future 2nd.
Coming into the year, the Eagles clearly identified the injury to DeSean Jackson as one of the reasons they struggled last year. They threw resources at their receiving core with a focus on speed and field-stretching ability.
They traded for Marquise Goodwin before drafting Jalen Reagor, John Hightower, and Quez Watkins. As well as having DeSean Jackson in the fold. With Jackson injured yet again, Marquise Goodwin opting out of the season and Jalen Reagor sat on IR the WR depth chart has been somewhat decimated.
In week 5 Travis Fulgham broke in a big way finishing with a stat line of 10-152-1 on 13 targets. However, it was what took place at the other receiver spot that has me most intrigued. For the third week on the trot, Hightower led the receivers seeing over 80% of the offensive snaps. He saw 6 targets and finished with a stat line of 2-18-0 not exactly anything to write home about.
If you dig further you will see that Hightower actually led the entire league in Air Yards with 210! Yes, that is a real number. It’s clear, therefore, that Hightower has stepped into the DeSean Jackson role as the deep threat in the Eagles offence. Had he connected on one of those deep shots Hightower’s fantasy day could have been very different!
As a player that is probably available on the vast majority of Waiver wires, he is absolutely worth a flyer! If Hightower is rostered I’m certain a future 4th or 5th round pick would be enough to tempt him off the unknowing owner.
This is probably not great advice in terms of maintaining peak value of assets. But I just don’t know if Jimmy G is going to be a starting QB in the NFL for much longer.
The 49ers benched him at half time in order to protect his ankle, but realistically we all know there was more to it than that. Last season, the 49ers made the Super Bowl, but a lot of that was down to the rest of the roster and coaching staff rather than the QB.
The 49ers can save almost $23m by moving on from Garoppolo at the end of the season and it’s hard to see them not moving forwards in a different direction.
A lot of people may think that Jimmy G will walk into a starting gig with another franchise but we have just seen an offseason where Cam Newton struggled to get a starting job and both Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton (perhaps the best comp for Garroppolo at this point) could only secure backup jobs.
All of that is before you add in at least three future franchise QBS in Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. So could we see the days numbered on Garoppolo’s trade value?
Currently, his price in SuperFlex leagues is around a future first if you can get that for him smash accept instantly!! Realistically if I can walk away with two 2nds I’d be happy. But the move may be to add an asset to Jimmy G in order to target a QB in a more stable position that hasn’t blown up yet like Tua.
This is less of a sell and more of a monitor of his price. I am happy to admit I was completely wrong on DK Metcalf. Coming out of college I was one of the people that felt his route running and lack of agility would hold him back . Meaning he would be nothing more than a one-dimensional receiver.
Well Metcalf has proven that when you’re an absolute physical freak that can bully Corners and Safeties alike you don’t need anything else. The entire Seahawks passing game has been incredible and Metcalf has been a big part of that. However, I don’t believe that his production is sustainable currently.
I think he will still finish as a WR1 and is absolutely a top 10 receiver in terms of Dynasty Value. However, he currently has a TD rate of 22.7% (good for 2nd amongst receivers with 15 receptions or more behind Mike Evans) which will likely regress as the season goes on.
This isn’t the reason why I believe he could potentially be a sell though. I saw some chatter over the weekend that Metcalf should be considered the WR1 overall in dynasty. But if I can get someone to pay the overall WR1 price then I am very happy to be selling.
I would still rather Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Godwin. I’d have to think about DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and CeeDee Lamb. But, If I can sell Metcalf for top value, you have to consider it.
So that’s it for the Week 6 edition of dynasty buy and sell. Remember, you can find all of our dynasty articles here, and all of our work is posted across our social media channels. We are on Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram.
Image Credit: Mike DiNovo – USA TODAY Sports