Week 9 Dynasty Value Study

It’s Week 9, the midway point of the season, we’ve seen many player’s dynasty value change dramatically, some due to age and some due to their play. Sometimes the general public adapts to these changes in value quickly and other times they lag behind and take a while to catch up. For this study we will be looking at the perceived value of players among the general public (sourced from keeptradecut.com) and comparing it to their expert value (sourced from Fantasy Pro’s ECR)

Quarterback Buys

Matt Ryan +17 (Colts)- Ryan started the season off poorly and has seemingly lost his job to Sam Ehlinger so it’s no surprise that his value has plummeted. His current value is QB51 while he sits at QB34 in ECR. This value gap can largely be attributed to the notion that Ryan is washed up, while the experts believe he will get another chance to start before he retires. Acquire him cheaply if you’re a dynasty team who needs a dart throw at QB.

Baker Mayfield +9 (Panthers)- Baker is another quarterback who didn’t start the season well and seemingly lost his job. He sits as QB44 on KTC but is valued as QB35 in ECR. There is no guarantee that PJ Walker will retain the job once Baker is healthy and Mayfield should get one last chance to prove himself. Buy Baker now and wait for him to get healthy on your IR spot.

Tom Brady +8 (Buccaneers)- Brady is the easiest buy on the list. Brady is QB31 in public perception meanwhile he is QB23 in ECR. Brady has struggled early in the year but once Tampa Bay gets healthy they will start to click and he will once again be a Top 10 QB. Buy him now and give it a few weeks.

Quarterback Sells

Sam Ehlinger -23 (Colts)- Sam burst on the scene as a few-found starter a few weeks ago and quickly become the hot waiver wire add at QB. In the coming weeks, he has shown that he is clearly not the answer and is playing on borrowed time as the Colts starter. He is valued at QB29 but is QB52 in ECR. Sell him now before the Colts turn back to Matt Ryan and he finds his way back to your waiver wire.

PJ Walker -20 (Panthers)- Once again the market has overvalued a newfound starter and once again it could very well be fools gold. Walker is QB39 but ECR values him as QB59. Walker has looked decent in his limited playing time but he cannot be the future of this franchise and the time to sell high is now while he still has a starting job.

Daniel Jones -9 (Giants)- The only QB on this list that started the season as a starting QB has seen his value increase in recent weeks. Jones is currently sitting as QB15 while he is QB24 in ECR. This is buoyed by the Giants winning games and Jones having a solid rushing baseline. I’m not sure the Giants are for real and as the schedule gets tougher Jones could see his value fall back down, he also had his fifth-year option declined and is unlikely to be the starter long-term. Sell him high.

Wide Receiver Buys

Robert Woods +25 (Titans)- as is the common theme among my dynasty buys, Woods has been plagued by age, injury, and underproducing. His time in Tennessee has not started off well but with an ECR value of WR63 he is a cheap stash at WR88 and can be held onto for one last playoff run. Buy him.

Russell Gage +21 (Buccaneers)- Gage is by far the youngest of most of my buy players and is largely cheap due to a star-studded cast of receivers. But with Evans, Godwin, and Jones all in front of him and constantly battling injuries Gage is sure to see his chance at some point in the season. He sits as WR66 in ECR but can be had at WR87 prices. Buy him now while he is buried on the depth chart and hopes it’s playoff time when the injuries pop up on the aging Bucs.

Jarvis Landry +20 (Saints)- Landry has been sidelined by injury for several weeks but when he returns it looks to be without star receiver Michael Thomas. This injury should give Landry a prime opportunity to beat his current value of WR96 and end up closer to his ECR value of WR76. Buy Landry now before it’s announced he is healthy and returning.

Wide Receiver Sells

Devin Duvernay -34 (Ravens)- the love for Duvernay has gotten out of control. He is being valued even higher than Rashod Bateman was in this same role earlier in the season. He currently sits as WR 60 on KTC while ECR sees him as WR94. That massive difference is because the public is assuming the targets have to go somewhere while the experts realize that this low-volume passing attack will feed Mark Andrews and only him. Sell Duvernay now before he is relegated back to desperation flex status.

Alec Pierce -15 (Colts)- Pierce is being overvalued due to youth and a handful of usable games. His current value is that of WR40 while he is ECR WR55. Pierce was never a great prospect in college and in a mediocre offense behind stud WR Michael Pittman there is little chance of Pierce reaching this lofty price tag. Pierce is a prime candidate to flip for a draft pick several rounds higher than you drafted him.

Romeo Doubs -15 (Packers)- Another rookie hype train receiver, Doubs at WR45 is way too high. His ECR rank is that of WR60 and is much more in line with his talents and opportunity. There are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay and none of them are of much value. Find a manager who believes that Doubs is the second coming of Davante Adams and cash out before they see he is a fraud.

Running Back Buys

Sony Michel +18 (Chargers)- Sony has seen his fair share of teams the past few seasons and now find himself as essentially the handcuff to Austin Ekeler, but with Ekeler currently battling a nagging injury the time could be approaching for Michel to see his chance. He is ECR RB67 but can be had around RB85 in most leagues. If you have a roster spot scoop him up as a handcuff.

Trey Sermon +18 (Eagles)- has been a healthy scratch for most of his time in Philadelphia but he is still young and has shown the ability to produce. When he eventually finds a new home he should step into instant production when given the chance. This is a stash only for the deepest of leagues as Sermon is valued at RB75 in ECR. Stash him if you are rebuilding and need a Hail Mary.

JD McKissic +17 (Commanders)- the victim of a messy backfield situation McKissic has seen his role diminished. The talent is there as a pass catcher and when he re-emerges he will again be flex worthy. He can be acquired at an RB73 price tag but is valued at RB56. If you can afford to hold him in the event of an injury to Robinson or Gibson he could pay off dividends in the playoffs.

Running Backs Sells

Jaylen Warren -34 (Steelers)- Much like my running back buys, Warren is a handcuff. The difference with warren though is that he is a far more expensive handcuff who at RB50 on KTC is already being valued as if he will take over the starting job in Pittsburgh any day. His ECR ranking is that of RB 84 which sees him as nothing more than a handcuff who could eventually be useful. If you have him and someone is willing to buy Warren as if he were a starter, cash out and move on.

Deejay Dallas -24 (Seahawks)- Another prime example of the public over-valuing handcuffs, Dallas is KTC RB75, as opposed to RB99 in ECR. Dallas has had the opportunity to be the starter on multiple occasions in Seattle and has never produced a notable amount. He isn’t currently worth a roster spot even as a stash on a bad offense.

Eno Benjamin -23 (Cardinals)- Eno’s value has spiked due to a multi-week absence of starter James Conner. Eno has looked respectable at times but lacks any real ceiling. He is currently seen as RB41 among the public but sits as ECR RB64. Conner should return in the near future, take this week as a chance to flip Benjamin for a player with more long-term value.

Tight End Buys

Logan Thomas +18 (Commanders)- Thomas has battled injury for the better part of two years, but when healthy he was a surefire top-6 tight end. It is still uncertain when he will take the field so if you are in need of a tight end take this as your opportunity to buy him as TE44 even though he sits at TE26 in ECR.

Dan Arnold +14 (Jaguars)- Arnold sits behind Evan Engram on the Jaguars tight end depth chart and that accounts for the dip in his value, but Engram is constantly battling injuries and Arnold has shown great chemistry with Trevor Lawrence in his limited action. If you have room on your bench take the time to stash Arnold at TE59 value.

CJ Uzomah +12 (Jets)- Uzomah had a career year with the Bengals in 2021 before signing with the Jets. CJ has battled injury and had to fight Tyler Conklin for playing time, but when fully healthy the Jets are more than capable of feeding two tight ends even with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Having said that I would be willing to stash Uzomah in hopes of the Jets going back to either Flacco or White at quarterback.

Tight End Sells

Jake Ferguson -17 (Cowboys)- Ferguson’s usage briefly spiked as Dalton Schultz battled injury, but as Schultz returned to the lineup Ferguson’s KTC value stayed the same. some managers seem to believe that Ferguson will retain the starting job over Schultz so now would be your chance to sell high in dynasty and cash in on this limited window before managers let go of their hopes that Ferguson is this year’s stud rookie tight end.

Juwan Johnson -15 (Saints)- Juwan Johnson has been the beneficiary of the theory “Somebody’s gotta catch the ball”. This theory is due largely to the Saints entire pass-catching roster being injured. Johnson has a multiple-touchdown game that has propped him up but once the saints get healthy again Johnson will go back to being an afterthought. Sell him now to someone who believes he is a starting tight end.

Daniel Bellinger -14 (Giants)- Bellinger is another Giant who has seen a spike in value due to a hot start by the Giants. This is unlikely to be sustained as the season progresses and relying on a rookie tight end in a poor offense is not a wager for me. Much like Ferguson, Bellinger is a rookie tight end I would be looking to sell to anyone who thought he was the next rookie stud tight end.

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Image Credit: Dennis Schneidler – USA TODAY Sports