The start of the season is great for throwing a wrench into the works- the Ravens Tight End position being among the largest. We spend all of the offseason preparing our dynasty roster, making sure we’re ready for game week 1. We send trade offers, we draft, we scour waivers and then finalise our line ups.
If you’re like me, you spend a significant amount of time checking in and listening to all the expert chat about player values. You target your “buys”, make your trades and feel confident that the championship is coming home.
This season I went out and bought two (more) shares of tight end Mark Andrews. Yes I’m a Ravens fan, but that doesn’t colour my judgement. This off-season he was ranked as TE6 on Fantasy Pros and Dynasty Nerds, coming off a perceived down year following a cracked fibula suffered in Week 11 vs the Bengals. I could sense the dip in the community, so I bought in.
So of course it stands to reason that in Week 1 vs the Chiefs it was his teammate Isaiah Likely who broke out with 9 receptions on 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. So is now the time for panic? Is Andrew’s a sell? Should I be sending offers out for Isaiah Likely? How do you resist overreaction and subsequent over-correction? I’m here to reassure you that there is plenty of cause for optimism in both players.
The “expected” Isaiah Likely breakout
Following his week 1 performance against the Chiefs, Likely was a major waiver wire target with some lofty amounts of FAAB being spent in redraft and some dynasty leagues (assuming he wasn’t already snaffled up and sat on someone’s bench).
To those in Baltimore Ravens circles this “break out” is no surprise. Following last seasons week 13 bye and with Andrews sidelined, Likely finished the season on an absolute tear! He had 4 top 10 finishes at Tight End in PPR leagues over a 5 game stretch.
Likely had 17 receptions on 22 targets in those games for 282 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Simply put he thrived in Mark Andrews’ absence. He built a level of trust and chemistry with Lamar Jackson that Rashod Bateman could only dream of and made the most of his opportunities.
Surely a healthy Mark Andrews drops Isaiah Likely back fantasy insignificance though right? Well not quite.
Ravens beat writers told us seemingly after every practice this summer that Likely stood out as the teams best playmaker. Likely lined up in line and at receiver during training camp and made plays at both.
Everyday the team was releasing its “play of the day” on social media and it felt like more often than not that Isaiah Likely was the subject of the clip.
It felt like more than off-season hyperbole. So much so that I declared on the Fantasy Wildcard Podcast that Likely was my flag plant as the player I think will take the biggest leap in dynasty value this year.
The Ravens have seen what Likely can do and are committed to putting their best players on the field to support Lamar in the passing game.
Likely has emerged as one of those players and I trust offensive coordinator Todd Monken to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers.
After all Monken did fine getting the ball in the hands of both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans during his time in Tampa Bay.
No concerns about Mark Andrews
So if I was so confident of an Isaiah Likely break out, why did I go out and buy more Mark Andrews shares?
Firstly the drop to TE6 simply felt disrespectful. Before last years injury curtailed season Andrews had been a top 6 tight end for every season since 2019 in PPR leagues including his fantastic 2021 season when he finished number 1 overall.
Sam LaPorta (2023) is the only tight end other than Andrews to wrestle the title of TE1 away from Travis Kelce since 2016.
On a points per game basis last year LaPorta scored 14.1 PPG. At the time of his injury Mark Andrews was scoring 13.5 PPG. That’s really close!
Using fantasy pros rankings,
TE2 – Trey McBride (Age 24) – 10.7 PPG
TE3 – Kyle Pitts (Age 23) – 8.1 PPG
TE4 – Dalton Kincaid (Age 24) – 9.4 PPG
TE5 – Brock Bowers (Age 21) – Rookie
The only seeming knock is Mark Andrews is about to play his age 29 season. However his consistent target share and production over the last 5 seasons makes him a sure fire bet.
Target Share percentage
2019 – 24.1% (23.4% red zone)
2020 – 25.4% (33.3% red zone)
2021 – 26.6% (26.7% red zone)
2022 – 29.0% (29.0% red zone)
2023 – 22.2% (37.8% red zone)
Whilst his target share dropped (likely due to the arrival of first round pick Zay Flowers) his red zone target percentage increased significantly showing he’s still Lamar’s most trusted target when it matters most.
Snap percentage
2019 – 43.2%
2020 – 64.8%
2021 – 76.5%
2022 – 83.8%
2023 – 71.6%
2024 – 73.8%
The emergence of Isaiah Likely last week didn’t mean we saw less of Mark Andrews on the field. Rather the Chiefs had a game plan to neutralise Andrews and this free’d up Likely. Per PFF Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes in week 1 than any of his other games from 2021-2023.
Now teams know that Isaiah Likely can take them apart, will opponents split that coverage more?
Lamar Jackson, Ravens offense and tight end useage
It’s long been known that Lamar is most at ease working the passing game in the intermediate areas of the field and working inside the numbers. Last season you can see he routinely targeted these areas and was at his most successful when doing so.
When you see the areas in which Andrews and Likely have experienced their success it’s easy to see how they can both continue to contribute without stepping on each others toes.
You can see Andrews does his work predominantly in the shallow to intermediate area and particularly inbetween the numbers. Andrews is the safety valve, a reliable chain mover and red zone threat, making him so valuable in PPR scoring. He is the type of tight end that is the cliché Quarterback’s best friend. In the rise of tight end premium leagues this is invaluable.
We can see here that whilst Isaiah Likely can offer the same support over the middle he offers a big play and YAC threat that Andrews perhaps lacks. 221 of his 411 yards came after the catch in 2023. 7.4 yards after catch per reception.
This theme continued in Week 1 of 2024 with 72 of his 111 yards coming after the catch. This is flex play gold, especially if your league offers big play bonuses.
If you’re worried about them eating into each others targets consider this. In week 1 vs the Chiefs the Ravens ran 12 personnel (1 running back and 2 tight end) for 52.7% of their plays. For comparison last season only 5 teams across the entire NFL ran 12 personnel for over 30% of their snaps. It appears the beat writers were right, the Ravens will look to get their best playmakers on the field.
I firmly believe that the emergence of Likely helps Mark Andrews as the season progresses.
Teams less talented than KC will realise they can’t just double Andrews as Likely will capitalise.
I need a tight end, am I buying Mark Andrews?
Don’t worry about Week 1! Mark Andrews isn’t going anywhere and you can look forward to his regular high production. Whatever you do don’t sell.
If you were interested in buying him here are a couple of recent trades from the last couple of months for Andrew via the Dynasty Nerds trade browser. They show you can get a good deal, and predicting the reaction of other managers after week 1 you could get a discount from a nervy owner.
So you’re saying get rid of Likely?!
No! If you own Likely now is the time to hold. Not every week is going to be as fruitful as week 1, but I believe there are bigger things to come.
Here are two trades that show what you could have got for him in the off-season. Unlikely you’d get him for that now after his “break out”
Here’s the thing… I think this value is only going to go up. This is Likely’s third season. I could see a situation where if he carries on this trajectory the Ravens may not be able to afford to keep him. A trade or a move to a new team where he’s the number 1 guy could spike his value further. That would be the time to capitalise.
If I were to sell anybody from the Ravens offense I believe these two studs limit the upside of Zay Flowers. He’d be my sell if I’m the owner as you can spin the WR1 narrative. But let’s keep that between us 😜👍.
